外汇期货周度报告：非农好于预期，美元维持震荡-20250706

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the US dollar is "oscillation" [5] Core View of the Report - The US economic data in June was slightly better than market expectations, with the non - farm payrolls being stronger than expected, which dispelled the market's expectation of a rate cut in July, and the benchmark expectation is now a rate cut in September. The US will likely impose tariffs of over 10% on trading partners after the 90 - day tariff suspension period expires, which may pressure market risk appetite. The "Big and Beautiful" tax - cut bill passed in the US is positive for the stock market in the short term but will exacerbate the government's debt burden in the long term. The US dollar is expected to have a mid - term downward trend but may show short - term oscillatory movements due to trade uncertainties [2][34] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Global Market Overview This Week - Market risk appetite remained high. Most global stock markets rose, while bond yields showed mixed trends. The US Treasury yield increased to 4.34%. The US dollar index fell 0.23% to 97.2, and most non - US currencies appreciated. Gold prices rose 1.9% to $3337 per ounce, the VIX index slightly increased to 17.5, the spot commodity index declined, and Brent crude oil rose 2.5% to $70.8 per barrel [1][5][9] 2. Market Trading Logic and Asset Performance 2.1 Stock Market - Global stock markets mostly rose. In developed markets, the S&P 500 rose 1.72%, and most euro - zone stock markets closed higher. In emerging markets, all stock markets rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 1.4%. However, the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell 1.52%, and the Nikkei 225 Index fell 0.85%. The better - than - expected US economic data supported the strength of the US stock market. The US 6 - month non - farm payrolls data was strong, but the ADP employment data was weak, indicating potential pressure on future non - farm payrolls. The Chinese official manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMIs in June showed slight rebounds, and the A - share market had high risk appetite and a strengthening index [10][11][13] 2.2 Bond Market - Global bond yields showed mixed trends. The 10 - year US Treasury yield increased to 4.34%, euro - zone government bonds oscillated, and most emerging - market bond yields declined. Due to better - than - expected US economic data and the increase in the government debt ceiling after the tax - cut bill passed, the US Treasury yield is expected to face upward pressure. The UK Treasury yield once rose 15bp due to fiscal issues and then slightly declined. Overall, the downward space for European and American bond yields is limited. The 10 - year Chinese Treasury yield slightly decreased to 1.645%, and the Sino - US yield spread inversion widened to 270bp, with the domestic bond market showing an oscillatory trend [14][18][19] 2.3 Foreign Exchange Market - The US dollar index fell 0.23% to 97.2, and most non - US currencies appreciated. The offshore RMB rose 0.13%, the euro rose 0.52%, the pound fell 0.48%, the yen rose 0.12%, the Swiss franc rose 0.63%, and the peso, real, and rand rose by over 1% [25][26][28] 2.4 Commodity Market - Gold prices rose 1.9% to $3337 per ounce. The market focused on the US tariff - imposing progress after the 90 - day tariff suspension period. Tariff risks supported gold, but the price was in an oscillatory range and had not broken through. The US economic data supported the Fed to pause rate cuts, and there was a risk of a short - term pullback. Brent crude oil rose 2.5% to $70.8 per barrel. OPEC+ announced another production increase, and the weak supply - demand situation led to low - level oscillations in oil prices. The domestic industrial product market rebounded due to anti - involution speculation, but there were differences among varieties, and the sustainability was questionable, and the commodity spot index declined [29][30][31] 3. Hot - spot Tracking - The US non - farm payrolls in June were better than expected, with over 140,000 new jobs added and the unemployment rate dropping to 4.1%. The wage growth rate was lower than expected, reducing the upward pressure on core inflation [2][3][34] 4. Next Week's Important Event Reminders - Monday: China's June foreign exchange reserves, euro - zone's June retail sales. - Tuesday: Reserve Bank of Australia's interest - rate meeting decision, US June NFIB small - business confidence index, and New York Fed's one - year inflation expectation. - Wednesday: China's June CPI, expiration of the US tariff suspension period. - Thursday: Fed's June interest - rate meeting minutes. - Friday: US 30 - year Treasury auction [35]