2025年中期大类资产配置报告：红利资产从共识到分化的再审视

Macroeconomic Overview - China's macroeconomic situation shows structural recovery, with retail sales growing by 6.4% year-on-year in May, supported by policies like trade-in programs[8] - Industrial production remains stable, with a 5.8% year-on-year increase in May, although PPI fell by 3.3% year-on-year, indicating weak demand in the industrial sector[8][14] Asset Allocation Strategy - The attractiveness of equity markets is gradually surpassing that of bond markets, with a recommendation to focus on "pro-cyclical" sectors benefiting from economic recovery, particularly in consumer goods[9][28] - A quantitative model for asset allocation suggests a risk budget weight of 40% for equities, 15% for government bonds, 35% for commodities, and 25% for gold, with specific recommended allocations of 13.95% in stocks and 57.93% in bonds[9][57] Dividend Assets Analysis - Dividend assets are categorized into three types: defensive assets (utilities), pro-PPI cyclical assets (coal and oil), and pro-CPI cyclical assets (consumer sectors), with a shift in investment logic required for the current market[40][44] - The valuation of dividend assets has been rising since 2023, with the PE and PB ratios of the CSI Dividend Index at 68% and 39.53%, respectively, indicating room for valuation improvement compared to major indices[33][56] Banking Sector Insights - The non-performing loan (NPL) rate in Chinese banks peaked in 2020 and has been declining, suggesting a potential for valuation recovery in the banking sector, which is supported by long-term capital inflows from insurance companies[45][53] - Insurance capital has significantly increased its holdings in bank stocks, with 19 instances of stake increases in 2025 alone, indicating strong institutional confidence in the banking sector[55][56]