新题材相继涌现，股指持续走强

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the stock index is "Oscillation" [4] Core View of the Report - This week, global stock markets rebounded, and market risk appetite strengthened. Chinese equity assets showed significant differentiation, with A-shares performing better than Hong Kong stocks. The logic for Hong Kong stocks is that the HIBOR rate has the potential to rise, suppressing market performance. A-shares have chosen a new theme, anti-involution. Affected by the information from the Central Financial and Economic Commission meeting, sectors such as steel and coal in A-shares staged a "capacity reduction" market, with stock prices rising from low levels. The sustainability of the subsequent market remains to be verified. In July, the core variable determining whether the stock market can continue to rise is the disturbance factor of overseas reciprocal tariffs [2][10] Summary According to the Directory 1. One-week View and Overview of Macro Key Events - Next Week's View: The high-level oscillation will continue. Chinese equity assets are differentiated, with A-shares outperforming Hong Kong stocks. A-shares focus on the anti-involution theme, and the sustainability of the market depends on overseas reciprocal tariffs [10] - This Week's Key Events: - June 30: China's manufacturing PMI in June was 49.7%, and the three major indices all rebounded. Shanghai's 500 million yuan consumption vouchers were distributed, and the TOP100 real estate enterprises' sales in June decreased by 18.5% year-on-year [11][12][13] - July 1: The Central Financial and Economic Commission meeting emphasized governance of low-price disorderly competition and promotion of marine economic development. From January to May, the added value of above-scale electronic information manufacturing increased by 11.1% year-on-year [14][16] - July 2: Sichuan Province issued a detailed plan to boost consumption. From January to May, the profits of above-scale Internet and related service enterprises decreased by 2.2% year-on-year. The possibility of a stablecoin pegged to the offshore RMB in Hong Kong was proposed. The 80 billion yuan "two major" project list for this year was fully issued [17][18][20] - July 3: The volume of electric bicycle trade-ins reached 6.1 times that of 2024. The Shanghai Stock Exchange held a promotion meeting for the "1+6" policy of the Science and Technology Innovation Board [21][22] - July 4: The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development called for greater efforts to stabilize the real estate market. The domestic high temperature drove up the electricity load, setting a new record [24][25] 2. One-week Market Quote Overview - Global Stock Market Weekly Overview: From June 30 to July 4, global stock markets denominated in US dollars rose. The MSCI Global Index rose 1.2%, with frontier markets (+1.55%) > developed markets (+1.31%) > emerging markets (+0.25%). The Brazilian stock market led the world with a 4.40% increase, while the Swedish stock market had the worst performance, falling 1.6% [26] - Chinese Stock Market Weekly Overview: Chinese equity assets were differentiated, with A-shares > Chinese concept stocks > Hong Kong stocks. The average daily trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 1441.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 45.3 billion yuan from last week. The micro-cap stock index rose 1.89%, performing the best, while the North Exchange 50 Index fell 1.71%, underperforming the market [29] - Weekly Overview of GICS Primary Industries in Chinese and Foreign Stock Markets: Most global GICS primary industries rose this week, with materials leading the way (+2.75%), and telecommunications services performing poorly (-0.40%). In the Chinese market, healthcare led the rise (+3.48%), and information technology underperformed the market (+0.05%) [32] - Weekly Overview of China A-share CITIC Primary Industries: Among China A-share CITIC primary industries, 25 rose (29 last week) and 5 fell (1 last week). The steel industry led the rise (+5.27%), and the comprehensive finance industry had the largest decline (-4.45%) [34] - Weekly Overview of China A-share Styles: The large-cap value style was dominant. This week, the value style outperformed the growth style, and the market capitalization style was biased towards large-cap [38][39] - Overview of Stock Index Futures Basis: Included information on the basis of IH, IF, IC, and IM in the past 6 months [42][45] 3. Overview of Index Valuation and Earnings Forecast - Broad-based Index Valuation: Provided PE and PB data for various broad-based indices this week, at the beginning of the year, and their changes, as well as the eight-year percentile [46] - Primary Industry Valuation: Presented PE and PB data for various primary industries this week, at the beginning of the year, and their changes, as well as the eight-year percentile [47] - Broad-based Index Equity Risk Premium: The ERP of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 decreased slightly this week [48][53] - Broad-based Index Consensus Earnings Growth Rate: The expected earnings growth rate of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 in 2025 was adjusted down to 7.92%, and in 2026 it was adjusted up to 8.08%. For the CSI 500, the 2025 expected earnings growth rate was adjusted down to 32.00%, and the 2026 rate remained flat at 15.37%. For the CSI 1000, the 2025 expected earnings growth rate was adjusted down to 41.87%, and in 2026 it was adjusted up to 17.02% [54] 4. Liquidity and Capital Flow Tracking - Interest Rates and Exchange Rates: This week, the 10Y and 1Y rates decreased, and the spread widened. The US dollar index was 96, and the offshore RMB was 7.16 [65] - Trading Capital Tracking: This week, the average daily trading volume of northbound funds decreased by 1.14 billion yuan compared with last week, and the margin trading balance increased by 1.99 billion yuan [63] - Capital Flow Tracking through ETFs: There were 29 on-exchange ETFs tracking the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300, 27 tracking the CSI 500, 15 tracking the CSI 1000, and 38 tracking the CSI A500. This week, the shares of ETFs tracking the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 decreased by 2.5 billion, those tracking the CSI 500 decreased by 0.5 billion, those tracking the CSI 1000 decreased by 1.2 billion, and those tracking the CSI A500 decreased by 13.9 billion [68][72] 5. Tracking of Domestic High-frequency Macro Data - Supply Side: The tire operating rate decreased [75] - Consumption Side: The transaction volume of first-hand houses was weaker than the seasonal level [84] - Inflation Observation: The prices of production materials rebounded from a low level, and agricultural product prices flattened at a low level [96][97]