房地产行业周度观点更新：如何理解合意“租售比”？-20250706

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the real estate industry [11]. Core Insights - The policy goal of stabilizing the market has somewhat boosted market expectations, but marginal downward pressure has increased since April. The rapid decline in industry volume and price may have passed, with structural highlights in core areas and quality properties. The importance of real estate in the economic internal circulation cannot be overlooked, and attention should be paid to leading real estate companies with regional and product advantages, as well as those with stable cash flows [5][9]. - The rental-to-sale ratio, which is equivalent to the capitalization rate, is crucial for stabilizing housing prices. A rental-to-sale ratio below 2% is considered insufficient, and the actual interest rate is the key factor influencing this ratio. The current focus is more on housing consumption rather than investment [3][9]. Market Performance - The Yangtze River Real Estate Index increased by 0.32% this week, with a year-to-date decline of 4.64%. The sector has performed poorly relative to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index, ranking 25th out of 32 this week and 30th out of 32 year-to-date [6][14]. - New housing transaction volumes in sample cities have dropped significantly, with new home transaction area down 13.7% year-on-year, while second-hand home transactions showed a slight increase of 0.6% year-on-year [8][19]. Policy Updates - Recent policies include the Hubei province's plan to revitalize existing land resources and Guangzhou's new regulations for converting commercial loans to public housing fund loans. These policies aim to improve the efficiency of state-owned assets and support infrastructure projects through real estate investment trusts (REITs) [7][17]. Sales Data - The report indicates that new home sales in 37 cities have seen a year-on-year decline of 14.8% for the month of July, while second-hand home sales have decreased by 12.6% [8][19].