银行业周度追踪2025年第26周：如何展望银行中报业绩？-20250706

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [12]. Core Insights - The Yangtze Bank Index increased by 3.8% this week, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 2.2% and the ChiNext Index by 2.3%. The bank index has accelerated its rise since July, indicating that the brief adjustment at the end of June was mainly due to institutional rebalancing, with solid fundamentals and core investment logic for bank stocks [2][6][18]. - The performance of city commercial banks exceeded expectations, primarily due to improved net interest margins and stable non-interest income amid bond market impacts. Overall, bank performance is expected to remain stable, with narrowing declines in net interest margins being a key highlight [8][36]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Yangtze Bank Index has shown a significant increase, reflecting a strong market sentiment towards bank stocks, particularly those with low price-to-book ratios such as Zheshang Bank, Minsheng Bank, and Pudong Development Bank [2][6][18]. - As of July 4, the average dividend yield of the five major state-owned banks' A-shares has decreased to 3.94%, with a spread of 229 basis points over the 10-year government bond yield. The average dividend yield for H-shares is 5.08%, indicating a more pronounced advantage for H-shares [20][23]. Earnings Outlook - The overall performance of banks is expected to remain stable, with city commercial banks maintaining their strong performance due to improved net interest margins and stable non-interest income. The decline in net interest margins is anticipated to narrow, supporting stable or improved interest income in the first half of the year [8][36][37]. - The asset quality of listed banks is expected to remain stable, with the overall non-performing loan ratio stabilizing due to rapid balance sheet expansion and write-offs. The retail loan non-performing pressure is expected to remain stable compared to last year [9][39][42]. Trading Dynamics - The trading congestion indicators for bank stocks have remained stable compared to the previous week, with a notable rotation towards low PB valuation stocks. The market's overall risk appetite has strengthened compared to previous quarters, indicating a recognition of the core investment logic [28][29].