能源化工尿素周度报告-20250706

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The urea market is expected to oscillate in the short - term. The international spot prices of urea have different trends in various regions, with some falling and some rising. The domestic urea market is influenced by both demand and sentiment, with inventory showing a complex pattern of change. The futures market is in a multi - empty game situation, and the overall market is affected by factors such as supply - demand fundamentals, export information, and agricultural demand trends [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Valuation: Price and Spread - Multiple graphs show the trends of urea basis (including Zheng Yuan, Bo Da, Jin Kai, Dong Ping), monthly spreads (5 - 9, 1 - 5, 9 - 1), warehouse receipts, domestic and international spot prices over the years [5][9][15] Domestic Supply - Capacity: The expansion pattern of urea capacity continued in 2025. In 2024, the total new capacity was 4270000 tons, and in 2025, it is expected to be 3460000 tons, with some projects already put into production [24] - Production Maintenance Plan: Many urea production enterprises have maintenance plans in 2025, including Jiangsu Huachang, Shanxi Tianze, etc., with reasons mainly being routine or policy - related maintenance [28] - Output: The production profit is around the break - even line, and the daily output of urea remains at a high level. The capacity utilization rate also shows certain trends over the years [30][31] - Cost: The raw material prices are weak, and the factory's cash - flow cost line has shifted downwards [32] - Profit: The profit corresponding to the urea cash - flow cost is currently in a profitable state [33] - Net Imports (Exports): Due to the adjustment of export policies, the subsequent export volume may increase [40] Domestic Demand - Agricultural Demand: Agricultural demand is seasonally strong, and the construction of high - standard farmland has led to an increase in the demand for urea from corn [44][47] - Industrial Demand - Compound Fertilizer: The fundamentals of compound fertilizer show trends in production cost, inventory, production profit, and capacity utilization rate [51][52][53] - Melamine: The production profit, market price, output, and capacity utilization rate of melamine have their own trends [55][56] - Real Estate and Wood Products: The demand from real estate for wood - based panels has limited support, while the export of wood products has resilience [58][59] Inventory - Factory Inventory: On June 18, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.136 million tons, a decrease of 41100 tons from the previous week, a 3.49% decrease. Some provincial enterprises' inventories increased, and some decreased [63] - Port Inventory: As of June 19, 2025 (week 25), the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 295000 tons, a 50000 - ton increase from the previous week, a 20.41% increase [63] International Urea - Multiple graphs show the trends of international urea prices, including FOB prices of large - granular urea in China, the Baltic Sea, the Middle East, and CFR prices in Brazil over the years [67][68][69][70]