国泰君安期货原油周度报告-20250706

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Brent and WTI may challenge $80 per barrel in the third quarter, and SC may challenge 580 yuan per barrel. In the long - term, there is significant downward pressure on oil prices. Brent and WTI may test $50 per barrel, and SC may test 420 yuan per barrel this year [5][6]. - In the first half of the third quarter, the market is bullish, mainly due to OPEC+ production increase falling short of expectations, a decline in U.S. shale oil production, and a relatively low global inventory center. In the long - term, the market is bearish because of the large - scale production increase from OPEC+, Brazil, Guyana, Norway, etc., leading to a high probability of inventory accumulation [6]. - The strategy is to buy on dips and conduct band trading in the short - term, and to short on rallies in the long - term. Close out and take profits on long - short spreads, and avoid reverse spreads [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Macro - The long - end U.S. Treasury yield fluctuates significantly, and the gold - oil ratio rebounds [11]. - Overseas inflation rises, and the service industry PMI rebounds [17]. - The RMB exchange rate continues to strengthen, and social financing recovers [19]. 2. Supply - OPEC+ production increase slightly exceeds expectations. For example, Iraq's Basrah crude export to Europe weakens, the UAE reduces Murban crude allocation, Saudi may use more heavy crude for domestic power generation, and Russia's ESPO Blend export decreases in June but is expected to rebound in July [7]. - The Dallas Fed Energy Survey shows that the business activity index turns negative. U.S. oil and gas executives are pessimistic about production prospects due to Trump's tariff policies and trade wars. Although U.S. crude production increased by 1.8 million barrels per day in April, WTI export profitability has deteriorated [8]. - Kazakhstan, Venezuela, and Iran have different supply situations. Venezuela's production is expected to decline, and Iran's export is affected by sanctions, but there are signs of possible sanction relief [8]. - The IEA predicts a global crude oil supply surplus in the second half of 2025, and global visible inventories have been accumulating in the past three months [8]. 3. Demand - The seasonal peak demand continues. In Asia, China's crude oil processing volume increases, and some countries like Japan, South Korea, and India increase their U.S. crude oil imports. In Europe, refineries are cautious due to conflicts, and freight increases have raised costs [9]. 4. Inventory - U.S. commercial inventory rebounds, while Cushing inventory declines and is significantly lower than the historical average. Refining margins are strongly volatile, European crude inventory rebounds while diesel and gasoline inventories decline, and domestic refined oil margins are recovering [61][70][75]. 5. Price and Spread - The North American basis rebounds slightly, the monthly spread declines, SC underperforms foreign markets with a declining monthly spread, and the net long position increases [79][80][83].