能源化工燃料油、低硫燃料油周度报告-20250706

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Weekly Review: This week, the global fuel oil price fluctuations decreased, and the premium caused by geopolitical risks was fully reversed. High - sulfur prices were relatively weaker than low - sulfur, showing a slight downward trend, while low - sulfur prices were relatively firm [4]. - Weekly Outlook: After the geopolitical risks were removed, the market focus shifted to fundamentals. OPEC's potential increase in crude oil production may lead to a decline in crude oil prices on Monday, dragging down fuel oil prices. For high - sulfur fuel oil, with large refinery maintenance in the Middle East and Russia, but high gasoline and diesel cracks, refinery operating rates may rise, increasing supply. Meanwhile, high - sulfur demand lacks growth due to weak secondary raw material demand from Indian and Chinese refineries. Overall, high - sulfur fuel oil may continue to decline. For low - sulfur fuel oil, low exports from Brazil and Japan and domestic refineries' focus on gasoline and diesel production may support LU valuation [4]. 3. Summaries by Directory 3.1 Supply - Refinery Operation: Data on the capacity utilization rates of Chinese refineries, independent refineries, and major refineries are presented, showing their trends over time [6]. - Global Refinery Maintenance: Data on the maintenance volumes of global CDU, hydrocracking, FCC, and coking units are provided, showing their trends from 2018 - 2025 [10][12][13][15]. - Domestic Refinery Fuel Oil Production and Commodity Volume: Data on China's monthly fuel oil production, low - sulfur fuel oil production, and fuel oil commodity volume are shown, covering multiple years [19]. 3.2 Demand - Domestic and Overseas Fuel Oil Demand Data: Data on Singapore's monthly fuel oil ship - supply sales, China's monthly fuel oil apparent consumption, and China's monthly marine fuel oil actual consumption are presented [22]. 3.3 Inventory - Global Fuel Oil Spot Inventory: Data on Singapore's heavy oil inventory, European ARA fuel oil inventory, Fujairah's heavy distillate inventory, and US residual fuel oil inventory are provided, showing their trends over time [25][27][28]. 3.4 Price and Spread - Asia - Pacific Regional Spot FOB Prices: Data on the FOB prices of 3.5% and 0.5% fuel oil in Fujeirah, Singapore, and other locations are presented, covering multiple years [33][34][35]. - European Regional Spot FOB Prices: Data on the FOB prices of 3.5% and 1% fuel oil in the Mediterranean, Northwest Europe, and other locations are provided, showing their trends over time [37][38][40]. - US Regional Fuel Oil Spot Prices: Data on the FOB prices of 3.5% and 0.5% fuel oil in the US Gulf, New York Harbor, and other locations are presented [43]. - Paper and Derivative Prices: Data on high - sulfur and low - sulfur swaps in Northwest Europe and Singapore are provided [45]. - Fuel Oil Spot Spreads: Data on Singapore's viscosity spread and high - low sulfur spread are presented [55][57]. - Global Fuel Oil Crack Spreads: Data on Singapore's high - sulfur and low - sulfur crack spreads, and Northwest Europe's 3.5% and 1% crack spreads are provided [59][61][62]. - Global Fuel Oil Paper Month Spreads: Data on Singapore's and Northwest Europe's high - sulfur and low - sulfur paper month spreads are presented [66][67]. 3.5 Import and Export - Domestic Fuel Oil Import and Export Data: Data on China's monthly fuel oil import and export volumes (excluding biodiesel) are presented [72][74][75]. - Global High - Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data: Data on the weekly changes in global high - sulfur fuel oil import and export volumes in different regions are provided [77]. - Global Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data: Data on the weekly changes in global low - sulfur fuel oil import and export volumes in different regions are provided [79]. 3.6 Futures Market Indicators and Internal - External Spreads - Internal - External Spreads: Data on the 380 - spot internal - external spread, 0.5% spot internal - external spread, and the internal - external spreads of FU and LU contracts against the Singapore market are presented [82]. - Analysis of Spreads: This week, domestic and overseas spot and futures prices were narrowly adjusted. For FU, the reduction of warehouse receipts and the decline in overseas spot prices led to a shift from a discount to a premium. For low - sulfur fuel oil, the stronger overseas spot prices due to reduced exports from Brazil and Japan led to a discount of LU against overseas spots [83]. - Spot Market Internal - External Spreads: Data on the 380 - spot internal - external spread, 0.5% spot internal - external spread, and LU - Singapore internal - external spread are presented [86][87][88]. - Futures Market Internal - External Spreads: Data on the internal - external spreads of FU and LU contracts against the Singapore market are presented [90][91]. - FU and LU Positions and Trading Volume Changes: Data on the trading volumes and positions of fuel oil main contracts, continuous contracts, and low - sulfur fuel oil contracts are presented [93][95][98]. - FU and LU Warehouse Receipt Quantity Changes: Data on the quantity changes of FU and LU warehouse receipts are presented [105][106].