铸造铝合金产业链周报-20250706

Report Overview - Report Title: Cast Aluminum Alloy Industry Chain Weekly Report - Report Date: July 6, 2025 - Report Author: Mo Xiaoxiong, Wang Zongyuan - Industry Investment Rating: Neutral [2] Core Viewpoints - Cast aluminum alloy prices are supported by cost, but the upside is limited due to weak demand, and short - term prices are expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [6] - The micro - fundamentals show that inventory remains high in the off - season, and attention should be paid to the marginal changes in scrap aluminum circulation [6] - The automotive market had a significant sales push at the end of the quarter in June, and consumer enthusiasm remains high [6] Supply - Side Analysis Scrap Aluminum - Scrap aluminum production is at a high level, and social inventory is at a medium - high level in history [9] - Scrap aluminum imports are at a high level, but the year - on - year growth rate is declining [14] - The scrap - to - refined price difference shows a trend of narrow - range fluctuations and a gradual upward trend [6] Recycled Aluminum - Cast aluminum alloy prices have declined slightly in the short term, and the spread between ADC12 and A00 continues to weaken [27] - The regional spread of cast aluminum alloy has basically converged and shows certain seasonal patterns [32] - The operating rate of cast aluminum alloy has been slightly reduced, and the monthly operating rate is at a historical low [37] - ADC12 production is currently in a state of average loss [42] - The obvious and hidden inventories of cast alloys have decreased slightly [47] - The import window for cast aluminum alloy is temporarily closed [49] - The production and inventory of recycled aluminum rods show certain regional characteristics [52][54] Demand - Side Analysis - In the terminal consumption, the production of fuel - powered vehicles is at a low level, which has an impact on die - casting consumption [59]