能源化工纸浆周度报告-20250706

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The pulp market is expected to remain in low - level consolidation in the near term. There is a lack of new drivers, with port inventories remaining at high levels and South American supplies arriving. Demand is persistently weak, with downstream buyers making only rigid purchases and trading remaining light. The pulp price is expected to move within a range. Attention should be paid to changes in port inventory and downstream procurement demand. The policy on eliminating outdated production capacity strengthens the expectation of supply contraction, but with new domestic production capacity ramping up, the supply side is under pressure, and demand is likely to shrink during the off - season. The paper mill profit compression may lead to a negative cycle of "de - stocking - reducing production" [82]. 3. Summary by Directory Industry News - As of July 3, 2025, the pulp inventory at Changshu Port was 598,000 tons, up 52,000 tons (9.5% YoY) from the previous period; at Qingdao Port, it was 1.378 million tons, up 26,000 tons (1.9% YoY); at Gaolan Port, it was 114,000 tons, down 24,000 tons (17.4% YoY). The total inventory of mainstream ports was 2.213 million tons, up 50,000 tons (2.3% YoY) [6]. - Finland's Stora Enso Group announced that the Kemi pulp mill and its adjacent paper mill would resume production on July 4 after weeks of maintenance and repair. The Joutseno pulp mill has been shut down since June 9 until further notice [6]. Market Data - Basis and Spread: On July 4, 2025, the basis for Silver Star was 832 yuan/ton, down 2.58% from the previous period; for Russian Needle, it was 52 yuan/ton, up 116.67%. The Silver Star - Russian Needle spread was 780 yuan/ton, down 6.02% [15]. - Monthly Spread: On July 4, 2025, the 09 - 11 monthly spread was - 2 yuan/ton, down 110% from the previous period; the 11 - 01 monthly spread was - 210 yuan/ton, up 4.55% [20]. Fundamental Data - Price Spread: On July 4, 2025, the Silver Star - Goldfish spread was 1,880 yuan/ton, down 1.05% from the previous period; the Russian Needle - Goldfish spread was 1,100 yuan/ton, up 2.80% [29]. - Import Profit: The import profit of Silver Star turned negative. The broad - leaf pulp Star had no quotation in June and is expected to partially resume supply in July [35]. - Spot Price: The downstream paper mills' signing enthusiasm did not improve significantly, and the demand was weak. The import coniferous pulp spot market had limited transactions, and the spot price was weak. The decline of import coniferous pulp narrowed, and the decline of import broad - leaf pulp slowed down [40][42]. - Supply: In May 2025, the European port inventory increased both YoY and MoM, and the global pulp out - port volume increased MoM. The pulp import volume in May showed a differentiated performance, with coniferous pulp down 4.75% MoM and broad - leaf pulp up 7.84% MoM [50][53]. - Inventory: The port inventory was at a high level this year, and the inventory of mainstream ports showed an increasing trend. The warehouse receipt quantity of pulp in warehouses was 228,500 tons, down 0.01% from the previous period; in factories, it was 17,300 tons, up 6.12% [77][70]. - Demand: The capacity utilization rate of finished paper showed different trends. The white cardboard capacity utilization rate increased by 3.30% from the previous period; the living paper increased by 0.16%; the offset paper decreased by 0.33%; the copperplate paper increased by 0.92%. The prices of white cardboard and copperplate paper remained stable, the price of living paper decreased, and the price of offset paper remained flat. The profits of white cardboard and living paper decreased, while the profits of cultural paper continued to recover [56][66][68]. Operation Suggestion - It is expected that the pulp will maintain low - level consolidation in the near term. Pay attention to changes in port inventory and downstream procurement demand. The core contradiction in the second half of the year may be the progress of production capacity clearance [82].