锌产业链周度报告：有色及贵金属-20250706

1. Report Sector Investment Rating - The investment rating for the zinc industry is neutral [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The zinc market is experiencing slow inventory accumulation, with short - term price fluctuations and a mid - to long - term bearish outlook. The supply is increasing while the demand is entering the traditional off - season, leading to a potential surplus situation [3][6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - Price: The closing price of SHFE zinc main contract last week was 22,410 yuan/ton with a weekly increase of 0.00%, and the night - session closing price was 22,240 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.76%. LmeS - zinc3 last week closed at 2,735.5 dollars/ton, down 1.55% [7] - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of SHFE zinc main contract last Friday was 153,571 lots, a decrease of 72,253 lots from the previous week, and the open interest was 128,000 lots, a decrease of 14,428 lots. For LmeS - zinc3, the trading volume was 4,385 lots, a decrease of 8,080 lots, and the open interest was 205,849 lots, a decrease of 4,129 lots [7] - Inventory: SHFE zinc warrant inventory increased by 874 tons to 7,246 tons, and the total SHFE zinc inventory increased by 1,731 tons to 45,364 tons. The social inventory increased by 2,900 tons to 82,400 tons, while LME zinc inventory decreased by 6,900 tons to 112,325 tons [7] 3.2 Industry Chain Comparison - Inventory: Zinc ore and smelter finished product inventories have risen to high levels, and the visible zinc ingot inventory has increased but remains relatively low [9] - Profit: Zinc ore profits are at the forefront of the industry chain, and smelting profits are at a medium level. Mining enterprise profits are stable in the short - term and at a historical medium level, smelting profits are also stable and at a historical medium level, and galvanized pipe enterprise profits are stable at a medium - to - low level compared to the same period [11][12] - Operation Rate: The zinc smelting operation rate has recovered to a high level, while the downstream operation rate is at a historically low level. Zinc concentrate operation rate has rebounded to a historical medium level, refined zinc monthly operation rate is at a high level compared to the same period, and the operation rates of downstream galvanizing and die - casting zinc have declined and are at a medium - to - low historical level [13][14] 3.3 Trading Aspects - Spot: Spot premiums have recently rebounded from high levels. Overseas premiums are relatively stable, with a slight decline in Antwerp, and the LME CASH - 3M structure has changed significantly [16][17] - Spread: The near - end of SHFE zinc shows a B structure, and the far - end structure is gradually moving out of the back structure [19] - Inventory: Inventories are showing a stable upward trend from a low level, and the ratio of open interest to inventory has declined from a high level. LME inventory is mainly concentrated in Singapore, with a short - term decrease and at a medium level compared to the same period in history. The CASH - 3M is related to LME off - warrant inventory [20][21][22] 3.4 Supply - Zinc Concentrate: Zinc concentrate imports are at a high level, domestic zinc ore production is at a medium - to - low level, and the recovery rate of processing fees for domestic and imported ores has slowed down [29] - Refined Zinc: Smelting output has marginally recovered, smelter finished product inventory is at a medium - to - high level compared to the same period in history, and zinc alloy production is at a high level [31] - Imports and Exports: Refined zinc imports are at a historical medium level [34] 3.5 Demand - Refined Zinc Consumption: The consumption growth rate of refined zinc is positive [39] - Downstream: The monthly downstream operation rate has slightly decreased, mostly at a medium - to - low level compared to the same period in history. The downstream raw material inventory and finished product inventory show different trends [40][41] - Terminal Demand: The real estate market remains at a low level, while the power grid shows structural growth [54] 3.6 Overseas Factors - European electricity prices, natural gas prices, and carbon prices show different trends, which have an impact on the profitability of zinc smelters in European countries [56]