工业硅：上方空间有限，推荐空配，多晶硅：建议谨慎持仓，关注政策出台

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Industrial silicon: Recommended for short - selling due to limited upside potential [1][5] - Polysilicon: Suggested to hold positions cautiously and wait for policy details to be released [1][6] Core Views of the Report - Industrial silicon's upward movement is restricted. The "anti - involution" policy in the photovoltaic sector has little impact on it. After the price increase, hedging by upstream factories limits the upside, and the decline rate of futures warrants may slow down. It is recommended to adopt a short - selling strategy [5]. - Polysilicon's price increase is related to the expectation of the "anti - involution" policy. The details of the policy, such as the source of funds for capacity acquisition, need to be clarified. It is advisable to wait and see until the policy details are available [6]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Trends This Week - Industrial silicon: The futures market fluctuated widely, and the spot price increased. The futures closed at 7980 yuan/ton on Friday. The SMM - reported price of Xinjiang oxygen - passed Si5530 was 8100 yuan/ton (up 400 yuan week - on - week), and the price of Inner Mongolia 99 - silicon was 8350 yuan/ton (up 450 yuan week - on - week) [1]. - Polysilicon: The futures market rose significantly, and the spot price quote increased. The futures closed at 35510 yuan/ton on Friday. There were no actual short - term spot transactions, and attention should be paid to the downstream's acceptance of the price limit [1]. 2. Supply and Demand Fundamentals Industrial Silicon - Supply side: The weekly industry inventory decreased. Yunnan and Sichuan entered the wet season with increased production, while Xinjiang's production decreased. The overall weekly output decreased. Some northwest silicon factories carried out hedging operations, and the southwest region still had the potential for production resumption. The futures warrants decreased by 0.7 tons this week, the social inventory increased by 10,000 tons, and the factory inventory decreased by 23,000 tons [2]. - Demand side: Short - term downstream demand increased. The polysilicon production schedule in July may continue to rise, increasing the procurement of industrial silicon. The organic silicon production decreased this week, and there are expectations of further production cuts, resulting in a marginal decrease in demand for industrial silicon. The aluminum alloy is in the off - season, and the export market is mainly for essential needs [3]. Polysilicon - Supply side: The short - term weekly output increased marginally. Some factories in Sichuan, Yunnan, Xinjiang, and Qinghai resumed production. The upstream inventory continued to accumulate, and the pressure remained high. The market was trading on the supply - side changes brought about by the "anti - involution" policy, and the upstream quotes remained high without actual transactions [3]. - Demand side: The terminal demand declined, and the silicon wafer production schedule was continuously reduced in July and August. Silicon wafer enterprises planned to support prices, but the downstream's price acceptance was limited [3][4]. 3. Future Outlook - Industrial silicon: It is recommended to short - sell on rallies. The price increase was affected by news and market sentiment, but the "anti - involution" policy has little impact on it. Hedging by upstream factories limits the upside. The decline rate of futures warrants may slow down. The supply depends on Xinjiang's production resumption, and the demand has mixed trends, with high - level inventory reduction [5]. - Polysilicon: It is advisable to wait and see until the policy details are available. The price increase is related to the policy expectation. The proposed capacity acquisition plan has issues with the source of funds. The price may have reached a short - term high, and the demand will weaken in the third quarter without new policy support [6]. 4. Market Data - Industrial silicon: The report provides the reference prices of mainstream consumption areas and the transaction prices of three major ports/warehouses from June 16, 2025, to July 4, 2025 [9]. 5. Charts and Graphs - There are multiple charts and graphs related to industrial silicon and polysilicon, including inventory seasonality, production, price, and profit trends, which help to analyze the market situation comprehensively [11][12][19]