强预期弱现实拉锯延续，碳酸锂震荡区间逐步收窄

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report The current market shows characteristics of "strong expectation, weak reality". The futures market is supported by marginal positives, and the resistance of the main contract is gradually emerging, but the spot price is restricted by high - level inventory and weak terminal demand. The trend of price increase still needs substantial inventory reduction and over - expected recovery of the demand side. The futures price may maintain a short - term shock, and attention should be paid to the actual demand recovery in July and changes on the supply side [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary - Futures Market Data Changes: On July 3, the main contract of lithium carbonate closed at 64,080 yuan/ton, up 0.19% from the previous day, with a narrow - fluctuating price center; the basis weakened slightly to - 1,880 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest increased to 334,000 lots, a five - day high, but the trading volume shrank by 22.11% [1]. - Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes in the Industrial Chain: On the supply side, the prices of lithium spodumene and lithium mica remained stable, but the capacity utilization rate of lithium salt plants remained at a high level of 62.8%, and the medium - and long - term supply pressure remained. On the demand side, there was a divergence in the power sector. The price of lithium iron phosphate materials rose by 0.36% to 30,660 yuan/ton, and the 5 - series ternary materials rose slightly by 0.04% due to cost support. However, the prices of lithium hexafluorophosphate and battery cells remained flat, and there was a risk of further decline in the power market demand in July. The overseas demand for energy storage provided support, but the consumer electronics market was in the traditional off - season, and the wet recycling market had light trading. The overall demand improvement was weak. The social inventory of lithium carbonate increased by 1.44% to 136,800 tons, and the oversupply pattern in the industrial chain remained unchanged [2]. - Market Summary: The recent market shows "strong expectation, weak reality" characteristics. The futures market is supported by marginal positives, and the resistance of the main contract is emerging. However, the spot price is restricted by high - level inventory and weak terminal demand. Attention should be paid to the change in the spot replenishment rhythm and the implementation of salt plant maintenance. If the inventory accumulation slope slows down, there may be a basis repair opportunity, but a trend - like increase still needs substantial inventory reduction and over - expected recovery of the demand side [3]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - On July 3, 2025, the main contract of lithium carbonate was 64,080 yuan/ton, up 0.19% from the previous day; the basis was - 1,880 yuan/ton, down 1.08% from the previous day; the open interest of the main contract increased by 2.61% to 334,057 lots, and the trading volume decreased by 22.11% to 420,967 lots. The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 62,200 yuan/ton, up 0.16% from the previous day. The market prices of lithium spodumene concentrate and lithium mica concentrate remained unchanged. The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate remained unchanged. The price of power - type ternary materials rose by 0.04%, and the price of power - type lithium iron phosphate rose by 0.36%. The capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate remained at 62.8%, and the inventory increased by 1.44% to 136,837 tons. The prices of various types of battery cells remained unchanged [5]. 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - Spot Market Quotations: On July 3, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 62,054 yuan/ton, up 416 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 62,100 yuan/ton, up 450 yuan/ton from the previous working day, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 60,500 yuan/ton, up 450 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The spot price showed signs of stopping falling and rebounding slightly, but the supply was still strong, and the inventory pressure remained. Attention should be paid to the actual demand recovery in July [6]. - Downstream Consumption Situation: From June 1 - 22, the retail volume of the national new - energy passenger vehicle market was 691,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 38% and a month - on - month increase of 11%, with a retail penetration rate of 54.5%. The wholesale volume of new - energy vehicles of national passenger vehicle manufacturers was 666,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 22% and a month - on - month increase of 6%, with a wholesale penetration rate of 53.8% [7]. - Industry News: - On June 30, Zhongkuang Resources planned to comprehensively upgrade the annual 25,000 - ton lithium salt production line and invest about 120.7 million yuan to build an annual 30,000 - ton high - purity lithium salt technical transformation project, with a shutdown and maintenance and technical transformation time of about 6 months [8][9]. - On June 24, the estimated total investment of the Mami Cuo Salt Lake project was 4.537 billion yuan, aiming to produce 50,000 tons of battery - grade lithium carbonate annually and recover boron elements, with a by - product of 17,000 tons of borax [9]. - On June 19, Yahua Group announced the establishment of Yahua Lithium Industry Group to integrate lithium - related resources, improve resource synergy efficiency, and focus on the development of the lithium industry [9]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Data Charts The report provides data charts on the main contract and basis of lithium carbonate futures, lithium concentrate prices, lithium hexafluorophosphate and electrolyte prices, ternary precursor prices, ternary material prices, lithium iron phosphate prices, lithium carbonate capacity utilization rate, lithium carbonate inventory, and battery cell selling prices [10][14][16][18][19][23][24]. 3.5 Appendix: Large - Model Inference Process The futures price may maintain a short - term shock, and attention should be paid to the actual demand recovery in July and changes on the supply side. Although the spot price has rebounded slightly, the oversupply and inventory accumulation are the main pressures. The demand has some signs of recovery, but the overall strength is insufficient to support a significant increase. The weakening basis may show the reaction of the futures market to the expected improvement. The increase in open interest but the decrease in trading volume may indicate market divergence [31][32].