Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints Market Analysis - For ferrosilicon manganese, from January to May 2025, the price of manganese ore was relatively low, and the power price and coal price in the production areas also decreased, leading to a downward shift in the cost center and a downward trend in the price. From January to June, there was a long - term loss in the production areas, resulting in a gradual decrease in production. By the end of June, the demand for ferrosilicon manganese in the five major steel products decreased by about 1.04%, and the inventory remained at a relatively high level, suppressing price increases. It is expected to remain in low - level fluctuations in the second half of the year. The 2025 production is estimated to decline slightly by 2.7%, and domestic consumption to decrease by 0.44% [8][9]. - For ferrosilicon, from January to June 2025, the price center moved downward, and alloy enterprises suffered long - term losses. The supply increased year - on - year, further suppressing the price. Steel enterprises had good profits and replenished stocks. Although the demand for steel was weak, other demands performed well. It is expected that the price will show a fluctuating trend in the second half of the year. The 2025 production is estimated to increase by 0.4% year - on - year, and domestic consumption to increase by 1.9% [10][11]. Strategy No strategy is provided [12]. Summary According to the Directory 2025 H1 Ferroalloy Market Review - Ferrosilicon manganese: In the context of loose production capacity, the price center gradually moved downward. After the supply - side disturbance of manganese ore in mid - to - late January, the price rose significantly. After February, it declined with the fall of coal prices. From March to May, it continued to decline due to tariff disturbances and weak market expectations. In June, it rebounded with the stabilization of coal and manganese ore prices [17]. - Ferrosilicon: Driven by the black - sector market in late January, the price rose. After February, it weakened with the fall of coal prices and the reduction of power prices in some areas. From March to May, it continued to decline due to tariff disturbances and weak market expectations. In June, it rebounded with the stabilization of coal prices [17]. Ferrosilicon Manganese: Weak Downstream Demand and Long - term Losses in Production Areas Cost Center Moved Downward, and Ferrosilicon Manganese Price Continued to Weaken - In 2025, the prices of ferrosilicon manganese raw materials such as manganese ore, electricity, and coal decreased. From January to March, the import volume of Gabonese manganese ore decreased, and the prices of ferrosilicon manganese and manganese ore rose. After that, they gradually declined. In June, the price of manganese ore stabilized with the reduction of South African manganese ore shipments. The settlement power price in Ningxia decreased in April, significantly affecting the ferrosilicon manganese price [23][40]. Long - term Losses in Production Areas, and Gradual Decrease in Ferrosilicon Manganese Production - From January to June 2025, production areas suffered long - term losses. Alloy enterprises reduced production through maintenance. The weekly production once dropped to 16.28 tons, and the cumulative production from January to June was 489.1 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.1% [50][61]. Weak Downstream Demand, and Ferrosilicon Manganese Inventory Still Suppressed Price Increases - By the end of June, the demand for ferrosilicon manganese in the five major steel products decreased by about 1.46%. The inventory in the three - link of ferrosilicon manganese was still at a relatively high level, and the registered warehouse receipts and effective forecast warehouse receipts were close to 90,000, putting pressure on price increases [64][76]. Ferrosilicon: Year - on - Year Increase in Production and Downward Shift in Cost Center Ferrosilicon Price Center Moved Downward, and Alloy Enterprises Suffered Long - term Losses - Affected by weak terminal demand in the black sector and downward - shifting costs, the ferrosilicon price fluctuated downward. In June, it rebounded slightly with the stabilization of coal prices. The power price and coal price decreased, and the price of semi - coke, an important raw material, also dropped significantly [81][84]. Year - on - Year Increase in Supply, Further Suppressing the Ferrosilicon Price - From January to June 2025, the total ferrosilicon production was 269.1 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.1%, but still at a relatively low level in the same period of the past five years [88]. Good Profits of Steel Enterprises, and Certain Stock Replenishment by Ferrosilicon Downstream Enterprises - By the end of June, the consumption of ferrosilicon in the five major steel products decreased by 3.0% year - on - year, while the production of stainless - steel crude steel increased by 10.2% year - on - year, and the production of magnesium metal also increased. From January to May, ferrosilicon exports decreased by 14.2% year - on - year. Steel enterprises replenished stocks, and the total inventory in the three - link was at a relatively low level in the same period of the past five years [92][99]. 2025 Outlook - In 2025, domestic crude steel consumption is expected to increase slightly by 0.1% year - on - year, and crude steel production to increase by 1.6% year - on - year, providing support for the demand for ferrosilicon manganese and ferrosilicon. - Ferrosilicon manganese: The production is estimated to decline slightly by 2.7%, domestic consumption to decrease by 0.44%, and exports to decline by 37.6% [109]. - Ferrosilicon: The production is estimated to increase by 0.4% year - on - year, and domestic consumption to increase by 1.9% year - on - year. Exports are expected to decline by 4.5% [111][112].
2025年期货市场展望：合金产区长时间亏损，关注成本端变化
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-07-06 10:37