棉花：关注美国关税政策的影响

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - ICE cotton futures are in a low - level oscillating market. The overall financial market sentiment provides support, but the market is concerned about the results of the US tariff negotiations. Domestic cotton futures are oscillating strongly, following the financial market sentiment. The price is supported by concerns about tight domestic cotton inventories, but the poor downstream operating conditions limit the upward momentum. Overall, cotton futures are in an oscillating trend. To break through the 14,100 level, more supply - side drivers are needed, and attention should be paid to the financial market sentiment and international economic and trade situation. The risk points are downstream demand and import cotton policies [2][18]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Data | Futures Variety | Opening Price | High Price | Low Price | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Trading Volume (Lots) | Trading Volume Change (Lots) | Open Interest (Lots) | Open Interest Change (Lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ICE Cotton Main Contract | 69.35 | 69.48 | 67.76 | 68.43 | - 0.89 | - 1.28 | 85,729 | - 38,686 | 148,946 | - 4,046 | | Zhengzhou Cotton Main Contract | 13,755 | 13,920 | 13,675 | 13,780 | 20 | 0.15 | 957,445 | - 84,936 | 546,129 | - 44,893 | | Cotton Yarn Main Contract | 20,125 | 20,245 | 19,950 | 20,000 | - 105 | - 0.52 | 42,604 | 2,676 | 22,872 | 1,012 | [5] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 International Cotton Situation - ICE Cotton: It fell 1.28% this week, mainly due to the US Department of Agriculture's area outlook report on Monday. The 2025 US cotton planting area is 10.12 million acres, higher than the market estimate and the USDA's June forecast. Later, it fluctuated narrowly as the market awaited the US tariff policy deadline [1][6]. - US Cotton Weekly Export Sales Data: As of the week ending June 26, 2024/25 US upland cotton weekly contracts were 0.54 tons, down 13% week - on - week and 66% from the four - week average. 2025/26 US upland cotton weekly contracts were 2.42 tons. The total signed sales volume of US upland cotton and Pima cotton in 2024/25 is 2.7612 million tons, accounting for 110.45% of the annual forecast export volume, and the cumulative export shipment volume is 2.4 million tons, accounting for 87% of the total annual contracts [6]. - Other Cotton - Producing and Consuming Countries: - India: As of June 27, the cotton planting area was 5.46 million hectares, 9% lower than last year. Rainfall is generally beneficial for sowing, and the cotton inventory of the Cotton Corporation of India has decreased [7]. - Turkey: Cotton imports increased year - on - year, and clothing exports increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year. Spinning mills face difficulties such as weak demand, thin profits, and high costs. The current operating rate is 60% - 65% and may decline further [8]. - Pakistan: Cotton import demand is weak. Crop growth is good, but late - sown cotton may be affected by monsoon rains. The domestic cotton price is expected to decline [9][10]. - Bangladesh: Spinning mills have few cotton inquiries. The government's 2% pre - withholding income tax on imports has raised concerns. The market is waiting for the results of the meeting between Bangladesh and the US on tariffs and trade [10]. - Southeast Asian Textile Industry Operating Rates: As of the week ending July 4, India's textile enterprise operating rate was 73%, Vietnam's was 64.5%, and Pakistan's was 61% [11]. 3.2.2 Domestic Cotton Situation - Cotton Spot Market: Spot trading is weak, and prices are stable. Spinning mills mainly make rigid - demand purchases. The sales basis of cotton spot is basically stable [12]. - Cotton Warehouse Receipts: As of July 4, there were 10,067 registered warehouse receipts and 262 pending warehouse receipts of Grade 1 cotton, totaling 10,329 receipts, equivalent to 433,818 tons [12]. - Downstream Market: - Cotton Yarn Market: Trading is average. The price of cotton yarn has increased slightly, but the actual increase is less than the quoted increase. Inland spinning mills are suffering large losses, and Xinjiang spinning mills are near the break - even point. The operating rate of inland spinning mills is declining, and inventory growth has slowed, while Xinjiang spinning mills' inventory is still accumulating rapidly [13]. - Cotton Fabric Market: Trading is light, prices have not continued to rise, the operating rate is low at 45%, and inventory is increasing. Both the domestic and foreign markets are lackluster, and fabric mills mainly make small - quantity and on - demand purchases of cotton yarn [13]. 3.3 Basic Data Charts The report provides charts on Xinjiang cotton cumulative processing volume, cotton commercial inventory (weekly), etc., but no specific data analysis is presented [15]. 3.4 Operation Suggestions - ICE cotton futures are in a low - level oscillating trend. The overall financial market sentiment is positive, but attention should be paid to the US tariff policy. Domestic cotton futures are oscillating strongly. To break through the 14,100 level, more supply - side drivers are needed, such as weather problems in Xinjiang. Attention should also be paid to the financial market sentiment and international economic and trade situation. The risk points are downstream demand and import cotton policies [18].