生猪：现货情绪变化较快

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week (6.30 - 7.6), the spot price of live pigs showed a strong trend. The price of 20KG piglets in Henan was 36.9 yuan/kg, and the price of live pigs in Henan was 15.18 yuan/kg. The national price of 50KG binary sows was 1623 yuan/head. The supply was tight at the beginning of the month, and the demand decreased during the week. The average slaughter weight decreased by 0.1% month - on - month. The futures price of live pigs also showed a strong trend. The LH2509 contract had a high of 14420 yuan/ton, a low of 13820 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 14305 yuan/ton. The basis was 875 yuan/ton [3]. - Next week (7.7 - 7.13), the spot price of live pigs is expected to fluctuate weakly. The adjustment of group slaughter has a great impact on the price during the off - season. Although the policy of purchasing and storing may support the price, the demand is weak, and the idle space in the social circle is getting smaller. The LH2509 contract price is mainly driven by sentiment. The short - term support level is 13000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 14500 yuan/ton [4][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Spot Market: The price of live pigs was strong. The price of 20KG piglets in Henan decreased from 37.3 yuan/kg last week to 36.9 yuan/kg, and the price of live pigs in Henan increased from 14.93 yuan/kg last week to 15.18 yuan/kg. The national price of 50KG binary sows remained unchanged at 1623 yuan/head. The supply was tight due to light pressure on group slaughter at the beginning of the month and farmers' reluctance to sell, while the demand decreased with the increase in temperature. The average slaughter weight was 125.13KG, a 0.1% decrease from last week [3]. - Futures Market: The LH2509 contract price was strong. The high was 14420 yuan/ton, the low was 13820 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 14305 yuan/ton, compared with 14005 yuan/ton last week. The basis was 875 yuan/ton, down from 925 yuan/ton last week [3]. 3.2 Market Outlook - Spot Market: The price is expected to fluctuate weakly. The adjustment of group slaughter has a great impact during the off - season. Although there is a policy bottom expectation from purchasing and storing, the demand is weak, and the idle space in the social circle is shrinking. There may be second - fattening entry in early and mid - July, but attention should be paid to pressure release [4]. - Futures Market: The LH2509 contract price first traded on the basis logic and then on the anti - involution logic. It is currently mainly sentiment - driven. The short - term support level is 13000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 14500 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the spot profit - taking and anti - spread trading opportunities [5]. 3.3 Other Data - Basis and Spread: The basis this week was 875 yuan/ton, and the LH2509 - LH2511 spread was 585 yuan/ton [10]. - Supply: The average slaughter weight this week was 125.13KG (last week was 125.26KG). In May, the pork production was 549.6 tons, a 4.3% month - on - month increase, and the pork import was 9.37 million tons, a 16.17% month - on - month increase [13]. - Demand: No specific demand - related data summary was provided other than the description of the current weak demand situation in the market outlook section.