新能源、有色组行业贵金属半年报：万物皆变而黄金永存

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Views - Market analysis: In the second half of 2025, precious metal prices are expected to show a pattern of rising after consolidation. From July to August, gold prices will mostly consolidate due to the Fed's internal differences on future interest rate paths and Powell's cautious attitude towards rate cuts. After September, with the increase in rate cut expectations and the impact of tariffs on inflation, gold prices are expected to strengthen. Silver prices may attract some investment demand due to the relatively high gold-silver ratio. The Fed's attitude towards rate cuts is cautious and there are internal differences. The passage of the Genius Act and SLR adjustment in mid-late June will reduce the possibility of a sharp rise in US Treasury yields in the short term, but the continuous expansion of the US debt scale may accumulate more hidden risks. Although the Israel-Iran conflict once intensified, the impact on inflation expectations was not significant. The recent CPI and PCE data are stable, and the impact of tariffs on inflation has not yet appeared. The market expects at least one rate cut this year. In the long run, Trump's radical fiscal policy may require monetary easing. If Powell is replaced, rate cuts may accelerate. The eurozone economy is performing better than the US, and the US dollar may show a volatile and weak pattern in the future. In the first half of 2025, geopolitical factors did not cause a significant increase in inflation expectations, but Trump's tariff policies affected the US dollar's credit and pushed up gold prices. Gold remains an effective investment to deal with uncertainty [6]. - Strategy: In the second half of 2025, precious metal prices will first consolidate and then rise. From July to August, gold prices will consolidate, and after September, they are expected to strengthen. For gold, buy in batches at 750 - 760 yuan/gram and take profit at around 870 yuan/gram, with a stop-loss at 710 yuan/gram. For silver, buy in batches at 8,750 - 8,800 yuan/kg with a stop-loss at 8,550 yuan/kg. The option strategy for gold is to go long on the calendar spread [10]. Summary by Directory I. Summary of Central Bank Dynamics and Bond Market Conditions - Global central banks slow down rate cuts but are generally worried about economic prospects: The Fed's Powell is cautious about rate cuts, while the eurozone is more positive. Recently, the eurozone, the Reserve Bank of Australia, and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand have cut rates, but central banks are cautious about future rate adjustments. Major central banks are worried about future economic prospects due to complex geopolitical factors and Trump's changing tariff policies [17]. - The global bond market fluctuated greatly in the first half of the year. Pay attention to the liquidity risk of US Treasuries around X-day: In May, the US sovereign credit rating was downgraded, and the auctions of US and Japanese long-term government bonds had weak demand, leading to a surge in yields. The rise in eurozone government bond yields was not as obvious as that in the US because the eurozone's debt structure is healthier. Japan's long-term government bond yields rose due to structural improvements in its economic fundamentals. The US is facing relatively large debt risks. Although the current market liquidity is relatively loose, the liquidity risk needs to be continuously monitored. The speculative positions of US Treasuries are starting to decline, which may challenge the auction and liquidity of US Treasuries in the future [22][31]. - The advancement of the Genius Act: Using stablecoins to maintain the US dollar's hegemony in the digital economy?: On June 18, the US Senate approved the GENIUS Stablecoin Regulatory Act, which aims to strengthen the US dollar's global dominance in the digital economy. After the passage of the act, the market value of compliant stablecoins such as USDC and USDT soared. Stablecoins may attract some funds that were originally invested in gold, especially in emerging markets. However, if the reserve assets of stablecoins face high uncertainty, the credibility of stablecoins may be affected [36]. - The Fed passes the SLR reform plan to seek more buyers for US Treasuries: On June 25, the Fed passed the SLR reform proposal, which adjusts the capital requirements for global systemically important banks (G-SIBs). The reform aims to balance financial stability and bank operational flexibility and provide clearer regulatory expectations. The adjustment of SLR will enable large banks to increase their allocation of US Treasuries. The US is taking various measures to increase the liquidity of US Treasuries, but the continuous expansion of the US fiscal and debt scale may accumulate greater hidden risks [42]. II. The US Dollar May Still Struggle to Maintain a Strong Long-Term Trend - The probability of the Fed cutting rates in the future is still high: Although Powell is cautious about rate cuts, Trump is pressuring the Fed to cut rates. The US manufacturing PMI has been below 50 for four consecutive months, and the economic leading indicators are declining. The market expects at least one rate cut this year. In the long run, Trump's radical fiscal policy may require monetary easing, and if Powell is replaced, rate cuts may proceed more smoothly [48]. - The improving economic outlook in non-US regions also puts pressure on the US dollar: The eurozone's economic performance has been gradually strengthening compared to the US since 2025. The eurozone's PMI data has been approaching or exceeding that of the US, and the US is showing a weaker pattern in the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index compared to non-US regions, which will make it difficult for the US dollar to maintain a continuous strong trend [56]. III. The So-Called Safe-Haven Demand Is Just a表象 of Inflation Expectations and Concerns about the US Dollar's Credit - Why was the gold price stable during the intensification of the Israel-Iran conflict?: During the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict, gold prices soared due to war-induced safe-haven demand and rising inflation. In contrast, during the 2025 Israel-Iran conflict, the impact on inflation was limited, and there was no unified expectation of real interest rate changes, so the gold price remained stable. In the future, the possibility of a sharp rise in inflation in the short term is relatively low [59]. - Global central banks' enthusiasm for allocating gold remains high, but US dollar assets are difficult to replace in the short term: In June 2025, a survey by the World Gold Council showed that 76% of central banks expect their gold reserves to increase in the next five years, and 73% expect to reduce their US dollar asset allocation. Although US Treasuries are still the main choice for central bank asset allocation, central banks are increasing their gold allocation to hedge against the risks of the continuous expansion of US debt [62]. IV. Summary of Precious Metal Fundamentals - The net long non-commercial positions of precious metals in the CFTC decreased significantly in the first half of the year: In the first half of 2025, the net long speculative positions in gold in the CFTC decreased by 52,275 contracts (21.14%) to 195,004 contracts, while the net long speculative positions in silver increased by 25,058 contracts (66.14%) to 62,947 contracts. The global gold futures market open interest continues to reach new highs. The possibility of a significant decline in the gold market due to profit-taking by long speculators is relatively low [64]. - The holdings of precious metal ETFs generally increased in the first half of the year: In the first half of 2025, the holdings of the SPDR Gold ETF increased by 80.01 tons to 952.53 tons, and the holdings of the SLV Silver ETF increased by 450.64 tons to 14,826.61 tons. As of May 2025, the increase in global gold ETF holdings reached 322.4 tons, a new high in the past five years. In May, there was an outflow of 19.1 tons from gold ETFs, which corresponded to the consolidation of the gold price in May [69]. V. The Marginal Growth Rate of the Photovoltaic Industry May Slow Down, but the Long-Term Tight Supply Pattern of Silver Is Difficult to Change - The demand for silver in the photovoltaic industry is expected to peak between 2025 and 2026, and the growth trend will continue to be positive before that. The increase in silver production from mines will be relatively limited in the next few years, which may lead to a supply-demand contradiction in silver. In the next three years, the gold-silver ratio may decline towards a central level of around 65 - 70 times [77].