新能源、有色组铝产业半年报：消费前置也无忧下半年消费强度

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the content about the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - Axis mine is assumed not to resume normal production in 2025, and the GAC mine problem remains unresolved, resulting in a reduction of about 1.3 million tons in bauxite supply. The expected increase in bauxite supply from various sources is about 3.8 million tons, leading to an estimated annual surplus of 300,000 - 500,000 tons even with the scheduled commissioning of new alumina production capacity in China. However, the uncertainty of overseas geopolitics needs to be watched [6]. - The supply of electrolytic aluminum remains relatively stable, with a current operating rate of about 97% and an operating capacity of about 44.1 million tons. The net new capacity in 2025 is only 100,000 - 200,000 tons, and the peak operating capacity is expected to be about 44.3 million tons [6]. - From January to May, the cumulative net export of aluminum products was 2.121 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6%, with the decline gradually narrowing. It is predicted that the export of aluminum products in 2025 will decline by 10% year - on - year. The cumulative automobile production was 12.82 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 12.7%, and it is predicted that the annual automobile production will increase by about 4% year - on - year, driving an incremental aluminum consumption of about 700,000 tons [6]. - From January to May, China's photovoltaic installation was 198GW, a year - on - year increase of 1.5 times. It is expected that the annual component production will be 590GW, a year - on - year increase of 3.5%, and the annual installation will be 320GW, a year - on - year increase of 15%, contributing an incremental aluminum consumption of about 250,000 tons. The rapid development of new energy drives the high - growth of power grid investment, and it is expected that the annual power grid construction will drive an incremental aluminum consumption of 300,000 - 350,000 tons [7][8]. - The aluminum alloy industry is facing a full - cost loss of over 200 yuan/ton, and the cost support is evident. The ADC12 price is underestimated compared to A00, and attention should be paid to the arbitrage opportunity between them [8]. Summary by Directory I. Alumina 1.1 AxIS Disturbance, but Bauxite Supply Remains Sufficient - Since 2025, the bauxite price has been in a unilateral decline, from a maximum of $115/ton to a minimum of $70/ton. After the Axis mine incident in mid - May, the price rebounded weakly to a maximum of $75/ton. The domestic bauxite price has also declined from a high level but is relatively firm compared to imported ore [15]. - From January to May, China's cumulative bauxite imports were 85.176 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 33.1%. The domestic bauxite production was 25.2 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.7%. Even considering the supply reduction caused by the Axis and GAC mines, the annual bauxite supply is expected to have a surplus of 300,000 - 500,000 tons. However, the uncertainty of overseas geopolitics may have additional impacts [16]. - Starting in June, the bauxite production and shipment in Guinea are expected to decline. Considering the shipping time, China's imports are expected to decline in August, and the spot market may face a structural supply shortage. However, due to the overall supply surplus, the price increase is expected to be limited [17]. 1.2 New Capacity Commissioned as Scheduled, Alumina Supply Shifts from Tight to Surplus - Since November 2024, the alumina price has been in a unilateral decline. After a period of concentrated maintenance by alumina plants, the price rebounded, but then entered a downward channel again in June with the resumption of production [28]. - Overseas alumina market is stronger than the domestic market due to the expected difference in new capacity commissioning and production release. China's alumina import market has been closed [29]. - From January to May 2025, China's metallurgical - grade alumina production was 36.42 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.9%. The net export of alumina from January to May was 1 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 100%. It is expected that the annual production will be about 88 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.4%, and the domestic alumina surplus will exceed 3 million tons without considering exports. Overseas supply will also turn into a surplus [31]. - The current alumina spot market is in a game situation. The marginal maximum full - cost of alumina production is 2,900 yuan/ton, and the industry still has profits. The low warehouse receipt volume may cause delivery risks, and the impact of the Middle East situation on alumina prices needs to be observed [32]. II. Electrolytic Aluminum 2.1 Stable Domestic Supply and Strong Consumption - From January to May, China's electrolytic aluminum production was 18.08 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.6%. The current operating rate is about 97%, and the operating capacity is about 44.1 million tons. The net new capacity in 2025 is only 100,000 - 200,000 tons, and the peak operating capacity is expected to be about 44.3 million tons. The probability of production reduction due to power supply problems during the dry season from the end of 2025 to the beginning of next year is low [57]. - From January to May, China's cumulative net import of electrolytic aluminum was 990,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.1%. The import from Russia increased due to the impact of出料加工 [57]. - The overall consumption is strong. The social inventory of aluminum ingots has decreased from the post - Spring Festival peak of 870,000 tons to 450,000 tons and shows no sign of accumulation. Although the consumption shows signs of a seasonal off - season, it still maintains a year - on - year positive growth. The current electrolytic aluminum industry has a weighted profit of 3,700 yuan/ton, and the cost of alumina still has room to decline [58]. 2.2 Just Track the Impact of the Middle East Crisis; It's Too Early to Talk about an Energy Crisis - Although the crude oil price has risen sharply due to the Middle East geopolitical crisis, it is too early to judge that it will cause an energy crisis and electrolytic aluminum production reduction. The European natural gas inventory is in a seasonal accumulation cycle, and the natural gas price is still in a large - range bottom shock [71]. - The impact of the Middle East crisis on the shipping route and whether it will cause production reduction due to raw material transportation problems need to be continuously tracked [71]. III. Downstream Consumption 3.1 Seasonal Off - season Consumption Shows a Marginal Weakening Trend - The social inventory of aluminum ingots has been continuously decreasing, but from the micro - data, the consumption shows a marginal weakening trend. The aluminum rod inventory has started to accumulate, and the weekly production of aluminum sheets, strips, and foils has declined. In the traditional summer off - season, the aluminum ingot inventory may remain low, and the aluminum rod may show an accumulation trend [77]. 3.2 Exports Are Stronger than Expected, and Consumption May Be Front - loaded - From January to May, the cumulative net export of aluminum products was 2.121 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6%, with the decline gradually narrowing. It is predicted that the export of aluminum products in 2025 will decline by 10% year - on - year, but the actual situation is better than expected, which may be due to the rush to export during the Sino - US tariff window period. The automobile production from January to May was 12.82 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 12.7%, but there may be a situation of front - loaded consumption [83]. 3.3 The Worst Moment for Photovoltaic May Be Over; Don't Be Too Pessimistic about the Material Demand in the Second Half of the Year - From January to May, China's component production was 237GW, a year - on - year increase of only 2.6%. The installation was 198GW, a year - on - year increase of 1.5 times, mainly due to the impact of relevant policies. It is expected that the annual component production will be 590GW, a year - on - year increase of 3.5%, and the annual installation will be 320GW, a year - on - year increase of 15%, contributing an incremental aluminum consumption of about 250,000 tons. The power grid construction is expected to drive an incremental aluminum consumption of 300,000 - 350,000 tons [91][92]. 3.4 Government Subsidies Drive the Home Appliance Industry, but the Real Estate Industry Still Drags Down Consumption - From January to May, the cumulative production of air conditioners increased by 5.9% year - on - year, the production of color TVs decreased by 4.9% year - on - year, the production of household refrigerators decreased by 1.5% year - on - year, and the production of household washing machines increased by 9.3% year - on - year. The real estate industry is still a drag on consumption, with negative year - on - year growth in construction start, completion, and construction data [98]. IV. Aluminum Alloy Is Undervalued Compared to Aluminum Price - From January to May, the domestic waste aluminum production was 3.12 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.3%, and the waste aluminum import was 856,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.8%. The cumulative production of recycled alloys was 2.853 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.8%. The waste aluminum supply is tight, and the aluminum alloy industry is facing a full - cost loss of over 200 yuan/ton. The ADC12 price is underestimated compared to A00, and attention should be paid to the arbitrage opportunity between them [103][105].