新能源、有色组行业锡半年报：矿端干扰以及新能源边际下滑令锡供需两弱

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the tin industry is neutral [8] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the first half of 2025, the tin market showed characteristics of "weak supply and demand." The LME tin price first rose and then fell (from $38,000 to $32,000 per ton), and the main contract of Shanghai tin fluctuated between 240,000 and 280,000 yuan per ton [3][5][13] - The supply of tin ore remained tight. From January to May, the imported tin concentrate was 50,200 tons (-36.6%), the supply from Myanmar decreased by 80%, and the resumption of production in the Democratic Republic of the Congo was delayed, putting pressure on processing fees [3] - The refined tin production at the smelting end was 88,900 tons (-3.6%), and the production of recycled tin dropped sharply by 17.3% due to the impact of tariffs [3] - The demand was clearly differentiated. The electronics sector (integrated circuits +6.8%) supported high - end demand, while the photovoltaic industry showed signs of over - capacity [3] - In the second half of the year, in the context of relatively weak supply and demand, the tin price is expected to maintain a volatile pattern [5] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Price Fluctuation in the First Half of 2025 - The tin price showed a volatile trend of rising first and then falling. At the beginning of the year, affected by the delayed resumption of mines in Wa State, Myanmar, the tin ore supply was continuously tight, and the LME tin price once soared to $38,000 per ton. After March, with the gradual release of Indonesia's export quota, combined with the slowdown of photovoltaic installation growth and the interference of Trump's tariff policy, the tin price fell from its high to around $32,000 per ton. In China, the main contract of Shanghai tin fluctuated widely between 240,000 and 280,000 yuan per ton, and the high spot premium reflected the tight supply pattern [5][13] 3.2 Supply - side Overview 3.2.1 Low Processing Fees - Since August 2024, affected by the mining ban in Wa State, the domestic tin concentrate has been in a relatively scarce state. From January to May 2025, China's imported tin concentrate reached 50,200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 36.57%. The imported concentrate from Myanmar was only 10,900 tons, less than 20% of the same period last year [16] - Another major source of concentrate, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, had its Bisie mining area suspended from March 13 to April 15. The first batch of goods shipped to China is expected to arrive in July. From January to May, the domestic imported tin concentrate from the Democratic Republic of the Congo was 12,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 22.86%. If the shipment can remain stable, it will be an effective supplement to domestic ore sources [16] - The relative scarcity of the ore end has kept the ore - end processing fees at a low level. The actual processing fee in Yunnan is currently around 11,000 yuan per ton, and in other regions such as Jiangxi and Hunan, it is even lower, with some refineries dropping below 6,000 yuan per ton [18] 3.2.2 Smelting Output - From January to June 2025, the domestic refined tin output reached 88,900 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.60%. Due to the impact of Trump's tariff policy on tin solder, the output of recycled tin decreased more significantly, reaching 19,600 tons from January to June, a year - on - year decrease of 17.3%. Before the supply at the ore end is improved, it is difficult for the smelting output to increase significantly [6][25] 3.2.3 Tin Ingot Import and Export - From January to May 2025, the domestic refined tin imports reached 9,500 tons, a year - on - year increase of 30.91%, and the exports reached 9,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 38.5%. In the second half of this year, as the photovoltaic sector may enter a stage of slow growth, the import volume may slow down, and it is expected to remain in a net export state in the next few months [30] 3.3 Terminal Situation Overview 3.3.1 Development of the Automobile Industry - In 2025, the global automobile market is undergoing profound changes, with the transformation of electrification and intelligence continuing to deepen. In the third - quarter traditional off - season, the market popularity is expected to exceed expectations due to the concentrated launch of flagship models with L3 - level autonomous driving capabilities. Domestic new - energy brands are expanding their market share with core technology breakthroughs such as 800V high - voltage platforms and solid - state batteries. Chinese car companies' overseas layout is paying off, and intelligent driving technology is rapidly iterating [31][34] - From January to May 2025, the domestic traditional automobile production reached 7.126 million vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 4.44%, while the new - energy vehicle production reached 5.699 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 45%, and the export volume reached 789,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 37.1% [34] 3.3.2 Home Appliance Industry - Since 2025, the Chinese home - appliance export market has faced significant pressure, mainly due to the continuous fermentation of the Sino - US trade dispute and the periodic weakening of global restocking demand. The traditional OEM export model is transforming into a new development path of "local production + brand operation + long - term in - depth cultivation." Different home - appliance varieties may face significant differentiation in the future, and the industry as a whole is less likely to maintain high - speed growth. After the strong export, there are signs of a decline. In the second half of the year, the home - appliance sector may not perform well under the situation of no obvious recovery in the real - estate market and great uncertainty in the foreign - trade environment [39][40] 3.3.3 Electronics Sector - The electronics sector is becoming an important demand growth point. Since the fourth quarter of 2024, the capital expenditures of three major Chinese technology giants (Tencent, Alibaba, and Baidu) have increased significantly. Even when the PMI data is relatively poor, the high - tech manufacturing industry remains at a relatively healthy level. From January to May 2025, the domestic integrated - circuit production and export volume increased by 6.8% and 21.13% respectively, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has risen significantly since April [44] 3.4 Inventory Situation - At the beginning of the year, the trends of tin inventories at home and abroad were significantly different: domestic inventories continued to accumulate while overseas inventories decreased. After April, they both decreased synchronously. Overseas inventories decreased rapidly due to tight supply and are currently at a historical low. In China, high supply and high prices at the beginning of the year suppressed demand, leading to inventory accumulation. After the price decline in April, the rush to install photovoltaic panels drove restocking demand, and the increase in the proportion of long - term orders diverted inventory, promoting the inventory - reduction process. In the short term, the tight ore end supports the inventory - reduction trend, but as the supply from Wa State, Myanmar, and Indonesia recovers, the inventory may start to accumulate in the fourth quarter [51]