Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The real - estate policy support weakened in the first half of the year, and the real - estate completion end significantly dragged down glass consumption. The demand for individual home - improvement orders also weakened. Although the production and sales of automobiles maintained high positive growth, especially automobile exports, which supported glass consumption in the automotive sector, it still couldn't offset the drag from the real - estate completion end. From the Spring Festival to now, glass has experienced a significant downward trend, with the glass 09 contract falling from a maximum of 1499 yuan/ton to the current 977 yuan/ton, a decline of 35% [7][8][37]. - The core point of contention in the market for glass consumption in the second half of the year is the change in the real - estate industry. The real - estate market will remain weak in the long - term, and the completion end will continue to drag down glass consumption. The consumption of glass in the real - estate completion end will further weaken, individual home - improvement order consumption will continue to decline, and automotive glass consumption is expected to maintain positive growth. It is estimated that the annual glass consumption will decrease by about 7.1% [7][8][38]. - In the first half of this year, the production profit of float glass was relatively stable, with the loss of natural - gas - made glass narrowing, and the profits of coal - gas - made and petroleum - coke - made glass rebounding slightly. Recently, the losses of natural - gas - made and petroleum - coke - made glass have slightly increased. Currently, only coal - gas - made glass has a production profit of about 80 yuan/ton, while natural - gas - made and petroleum - coke - made glass are in the red, with losses of - 180 yuan/ton and - 128 yuan/ton respectively. If the whole industry continues to suffer large - scale losses, some production lines may be cold - repaired, and the output may decline. It is estimated that the annual glass supply will decrease by about 7.2% [7][9][47]. - The glass inventory increased rapidly after the Spring Festival, then briefly decreased, and now has returned to an increasing trend, indicating that the float glass industry still faces a certain degree of oversupply in the short term. It is advisable to wait for changes in the supply side and further trading opportunities [7][62][71]. - In the short term, with no real - estate stimulus policies and no large - scale cold - repair of glass factories, it is suitable to conduct sell - hedging at high prices [11][72]. Summary According to the Catalog 2025 First - Half Glass Market Review - Real - estate industry cooling, completion declining year - on - year: Since 2022, the real - estate "guaranteeing the delivery of buildings" policy has driven the continuous improvement of the real - estate completion end. However, since 2024, the improvement has ended, and the real - estate completion data has shown significant negative growth for two consecutive years. As of May 2025, the cumulative housing completion area was 184 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 17.3%, among which the residential completion area was 133 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 17.6% [16]. - Limited real - estate policy support, weakening demand for individual home - improvement orders: In the first half of 2025, a series of real - estate policies were introduced, but the demand for individual home - improvement orders continued to weaken. After a brief rebound in March, the second - hand housing market returned to a downward trend, and only some first - tier cities showed relatively high second - hand housing transactions, which also gradually weakened. Since September 2024, the active second - hand housing transactions have not driven the sales growth of building materials and home furnishing stores, and the national building materials and home furnishing prosperity index has also declined [18][26]. - New - energy vehicles maintaining good momentum, supporting automotive glass consumption: From January to May this year, the cumulative national automobile production was 12.826 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 12.7%, among which the cumulative new - energy vehicle production was 5.699 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 45.2%. From January to May, the cumulative national automobile exports were 2.49 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 7.9% [28]. 2025 Second - Half Glass Market Outlook - Weak real - estate market, completion continuing to drag down glass consumption: The real - estate market will remain weak in the long - term. The real - estate completion end will continue to drag down glass consumption as new home sales have not improved, and the corresponding completion consumption has declined for two consecutive years [38][39]. - Profit significantly compressed, glass supply uncertain: Currently, only coal - gas - made glass has a production profit, while natural - gas - made and petroleum - coke - made glass are in the red. In the first half of the year, the float glass profit was relatively stable, and the number of operating production lines decreased by only 3 compared with the beginning of the year, with the average daily melting volume maintained at about 157,000 tons. If the whole industry continues to suffer large - scale losses, some production lines may be cold - repaired, and the output may decline [47][56][71]. Supply - Demand Contradiction Exists, Inventory Rising Again - Affected by the decline in consumption, the production profit of float glass was compressed, and the output decreased. However, the decline in consumption far exceeded that in output. After the Spring Festival, the glass inventory increased rapidly, then briefly decreased, and now has returned to an increasing trend, indicating that the float glass industry still faces a certain degree of oversupply [62]. Summary - The consumption of glass in the real - estate completion end will further weaken, individual home - improvement order consumption will continue to decline, and automotive glass consumption is expected to maintain positive growth. It is estimated that the annual glass consumption will decrease by about 7.1%. The float glass profit has been significantly compressed, and if the whole industry continues to suffer large - scale losses, some production lines may be cold - repaired, and the output may decline. It is estimated that the annual glass supply will decrease by about 7.2%. In the short term, glass still faces a certain degree of oversupply. It is advisable to pay attention to changes in the supply side and wait for trading opportunities. In the absence of real - estate stimulus policies and large - scale cold - repair of glass factories, it is suitable to conduct sell - hedging at high prices [7][71][72].
2025年期货市场展望：玻璃需求持续走弱，关注供应端变化
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-07-06 10:47