螺纹钢、热轧卷板周度报告-20250706

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Low valuation combined with policy drivers lead to a slight increase in steel prices. The overseas macro situation shows that the easing of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, the rise in the expectation of US interest rate cuts, and the decline of the US dollar index are beneficial to pro - cyclical commodities. In the domestic market, the supply - side expectation is briefly traded, and the demand side is waiting for the July 30 Politburo meeting. In the black产业链, the steel demand in the off - season exceeds expectations, the steel inventory is low, the steel mill profit expands, the decline of hot metal is slow, and the negative feedback transmission is not smooth [3][5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overall Situation - Macro - environment: Overseas, the macro - trading is temporarily biased towards the direction of interest rate cuts. The easing of the Middle East situation, poor US employment data, and the expectation of interest rate cuts have a positive impact on pro - cyclical commodities. Domestically, the supply - side expectation is briefly traded, and the demand side is waiting for the July 30 Politburo meeting. There have been a series of policy events such as real - estate favorable policies, debt replacement, and government work reports [5][8][9]. - Black Industry Chain: The steel demand in the off - season exceeds expectations, the steel inventory is low, the steel mill profit expands, the decline of hot metal is slow, and the negative feedback transmission is not smooth [5][11]. 3.2 Rebar (Thread Steel) - Price and Spread: Last week, the Shanghai rebar spot price was 3160 (+80) yuan/ton, the main futures price was 3072 (+77) yuan/ton, the main contract basis was 88 (+8) yuan/ton, and the 10 - 01 spread was - 21 (-21) yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the off - season spread reverse arbitrage opportunities [17]. - Demand: Second - hand housing transactions remain high, indicating the existence of rigid demand, but new - housing transactions remain low, showing weak market confidence. Land transaction area also remains low. With the arrival of the off - season, demand shows a seasonal decline [21][22]. - Supply and Inventory: According to MS weekly data, the destocking of steel mill inventory slows down, and supply slightly increases. The spot profit last week was 336 (+84) yuan/ton, the main contract profit was 325 (+46) yuan/ton, and the East China rebar valley - electricity profit was 59 (+82) yuan/ton [24][32]. 3.3 Hot - Rolled Coil - Price and Spread: Last week, the Shanghai hot - rolled coil spot price was 3250 (+60) yuan/ton, the main futures price was 3201 (+80) yuan/ton, the main contract basis was 49 (-20) yuan/ton, and the 10 - 01 spread was - 9 (-3) yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the off - season spread reverse arbitrage opportunities [37]. - Demand: The demand for hot - rolled coils weakens month - on - month. The US imposes tariffs on steel - made household appliances, the white - goods production enters the seasonal off - season, and the export also weakens month - on - month [38][41][42]. - Supply and Inventory: According to MS weekly data, demand weakens month - on - month, inventory slightly accumulates, and steel mills maintain high production. The spot profit last week was 238 (+62) yuan/ton, and the main contract profit was 304 (+49) yuan/ton [46][47][52]. 3.4 Variety Spread Structure - There are various spread structures such as the cold - hot spread in Shanghai, the coil - rebar spread in Shanghai, the medium - plate hot - roll spread in Shanghai, the wire - rebar spread in Hangzhou, etc. There are also regional spreads for rebar, wire, hot - rolled coil, and cold - rolled coil [53][54][61]. 3.5 Cold - Rolled Coil and Medium - Thick Plate - Data on the supply, demand, and inventory of cold - rolled coils and medium - thick plates are provided, including seasonal data on total inventory, production, and apparent consumption [65][66].