Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, the global primary nickel supply will continue to increase, with an overall surplus, and the nickel price center will shift downward. The lower limit of the nickel price will approach the MHP integrated cost, and the upper limit will approach the RKEF nickel matte integrated cost. It is expected that the Shanghai nickel will trade between 110,000 - 130,000 yuan/ton in the second half of 2025 [6][12][13]. - The demand growth rate of stainless steel has declined, mainly due to the suppression of overseas tariff barriers on the production and sales of stainless steel end - products. The supply side has full elasticity, the over - capacity contradiction remains unchanged, and the cost reduction opens up the downward space for stainless steel. It is estimated that the stainless steel will oscillate between 12,200 - 13,500 yuan/ton in the second half of the year [1][22]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Persistent Excess Pattern of Primary Nickel - Global Primary Nickel Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: Persistent Excess Situation - In the first half of 2025, the global primary nickel supply was about 1.84 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 10%. The consumption in the stainless steel and alloy industries had a relatively high growth rate. There was a slight inventory accumulation in the first half of the year. - For the second half of 2025, both supply and demand are expected to grow. The annual supply is expected to reach 3.77 million tons, with a year - on - year growth rate of about 4.7%, and the consumption is about 3.65 million tons, with a year - on - year growth rate of 4.9%. The annual surplus is expected to be 150,000 tons [30]. - China's Primary Nickel Supply - Demand Still in Excess - In the first half of 2025, China's primary nickel total supply was about 1.14 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.6%, with inventory accumulation of 120,000 tons. - In 2025, it is expected to maintain a double - growth in supply and demand. The annual primary nickel total supply is expected to be 2.5 million tons, consumption is 2.28 million tons, and the surplus is 250,000 tons [33][34]. 2. Primary Nickel Supply - Collision between Traditional and Emerging Nickel Supply - Since 2022, some high - cost nickel mines globally have reduced or stopped production, with a total reduction capacity of 360,000 tons of metal. In 2024, there were many reduction and shutdown projects in Australia and other regions. - The main variables in global primary nickel supply come from emerging nickel suppliers. Indonesia's nickel - iron new capacity is the largest part of the global primary nickel supply increment, and intermediate products such as wet - process MHP and high - grade nickel matte have a direct impact on refined nickel supply and demand [37][38][39]. - Gradual Growth of Nickel Intermediate Product Supply - In 2024, some new nickel wet - process and high - ice nickel capacities were put into production, and there are still more than 500,000 tons of wet - process under - construction and planned capacities. However, the actual production situation needs continuous tracking due to uncertainties in wet - process capacity production and the decline in the market share of ternary batteries [45]. - China's Refined Nickel Production Remains at a High Level - From January to May 2025, China's refined nickel cumulative production was 175,834 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 43.91%. The import and export volume of refined nickel also increased significantly [59]. 3. Refined Nickel Consumption - Sulfuric Acid Nickel's Consumption of Pure Nickel Remains Almost Zero - Due to the large losses in the self - dissolution of nickel beans into sulfuric acid nickel in recent years, the consumption of refined nickel in the new energy sector has declined rapidly, and currently, nickel beans are basically not used to produce sulfuric acid nickel [67]. - Growth in Electroplating and Stainless Steel Industries - The downstream consumption of refined nickel is mainly concentrated in alloy, stainless steel, and electroplating industries, with alloy consumption accounting for about 55%, stainless steel about 20%, and electroplating about 15%. The consumption of electrolytic nickel in stainless steel, electroplating, and alloy industries increased year - on - year in the first half of the year, and it is expected to continue to grow in the second half of the year [10][68][71]. 4. Stainless Steel Sector - Stainless Steel Capacity Statistics - In 2025, China plans to add about 5.56 million tons of new stainless steel capacity, and Indonesia plans to add 1 million tons. However, due to many influencing factors and poor industry profit conditions, the future production progress is expected to be relatively slow [80]. - Stainless Steel Production Statistics - As of June 2025, the cumulative production of national stainless steel crude steel was 19.8466 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.03%. It is expected that the annual production of stainless steel crude steel will be about 41.5 million tons [85]. - Stainless Steel Import and Export Data Statistics - From January to May 2025, China's stainless steel imports decreased year - on - year, and exports increased year - on - year. The net export volume increased significantly. The import decline was mainly due to the reduction of cold - rolled coil imports from Indonesia, and the export decline in May was mainly affected by the uncertainty of global tariff policies [98]. - Analysis of Stainless Steel Terminal Industry Consumption - The terminal consumption of 300 - series stainless steel is relatively dispersed. The real estate sector is the main drag factor, while the home appliance sector is the main consumption boost factor [104]. - Statistics of Stainless Steel Profit Level - As of early July 2025, the profit level of the stainless steel industry was low, and most enterprises faced great cost pressure [127]. - Difficulty in Changing the Excess Supply - Demand Pattern of Stainless Steel - Since 2022, the supply and demand of stainless steel have been in a state of excess. The subsequent production of stainless steel capacity to be put into production may not meet expectations, and the actual demand may be less than expected due to the uncertainty of global trade [133]. 5. Nickel - Stainless Steel Industry Chain Inventory - Continuous Increase in Refined Nickel Inventory - From December 27, 2024, to June 27, 2025, the global refined nickel visible inventory increased by 32,099 tons to 240,885 tons, and part of the inventory was converted into invisible inventory [11][134]. - Relatively Stable Nickel - Iron Inventory - Affected by the seasonality of Philippine nickel ore exports, China's nickel ore port inventory is at a medium level in the same period of history, and the nickel - iron spot inventory is at a relatively high position compared with the same period last year [139]. - Summary of Stainless Steel Social Inventory and Futures Warehouse Receipt Data - As of July 3, 2025, the social inventory of 300 - series stainless steel may remain at a high level in the third quarter and gradually decrease in the fourth quarter. The futures warehouse receipt decreased after reaching the highest level in March - early April, and the overall stainless steel inventory pressure still exists [141][142].
镍品种：利润决定原料流向，交仓控制价格节奏
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-07-06 10:55