铁矿石周度观点-20250706

Report Overview - Report Title: Iron Ore Weekly Outlook [1] - Analyst: Zhang Guangshuo [2] - Date: July 6, 2025 [2] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View - The industry outlook has improved, leading to an increase in the valuation of iron ore raw materials. However, the steel industry chain is unlikely to reverse its overall trend, and the upside potential for iron ore prices is limited [3][5] 3. Summary by Sections 3.1 Supply - Mainstream Mines: After BHP and Fortescue ended their fiscal - year - end volume push, the shipments of mainstream mines declined from their recent highs. Shipping from Western Australia decreased, and freight rates have temporarily peaked and started to fall. Vale's global shipments also decreased [5][16][20] - Non - mainstream Mines: Shipments from Peru have recently resumed, while those from India and South Africa have decreased. Shipments from the Shougang Peru Iron Mine are about to resume [5][22] - Domestic Mines: The operations in North China are gradually resuming, while the capacity utilization in Southwest China has decreased again [27] 3.2 Demand - Downstream Demand: Blast furnace operations remain at a relatively high level, and the production of the five major steel products has increased recently, driven by rebar and medium - thick plates. The daily average molten iron production and the daily average port clearance volume of imported iron ore at 45 ports are also at a certain level [5][30] - Scrap Substitution Effect: The cost of molten iron has dropped below 2000 yuan/ton, and the price difference between scrap and iron has reached a new high in recent years [31] 3.3 Inventory - Overall Inventory: The inflection point for inventory accumulation has not yet arrived, and the inventories of Australian and Brazilian iron ore have shown some divergence recently. The port inventory of lump ore remains at a low level [35][37] 3.4 Price Performance - Contract Performance: The price of the main 09 contract was strong this week, closing at 732.5 yuan/ton. The open interest decreased by 28,000 lots to 651,000 lots, and the average daily trading volume decreased by 59,000 lots to 398,000 lots [7] - Spot Price Performance: Spot prices have followed the increase with a delay, and the prices of medium - grade ores have increased relatively more. For example, the price of PB powder increased by 17 yuan/ton, and the price of Jinbuba powder increased by 19 yuan/ton [11] 3.5 Spread Analysis - Spot Category Spread: The price of medium - grade ore PB was strong this week, and the PB - Super Special spread has recovered. However, the spot price of Carajás fines has been relatively weak recently, and the Carajás fines - PB spread has narrowed again [43] - Futures Monthly Spread: The marginal change in the monthly spread has been small recently, but there are significant differences in the supply - demand expectations for far - month contracts [45] - Basis Performance: The spot price increase has been significantly insufficient, and the basis of each contract has shrunk to a new low level [49]