棕榈油：等待矛盾演化，暂受国际油价影响大，豆油：弱现实延续，等待美豆端有效驱动

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Palm Oil: It is in a pattern of weak current situation but strong future expectations. The short - term pressure comes from the复产 situation. If there is excessive inventory accumulation from August to September or continuous poor demand sentiment in China and India, it is in the seasonally short - allocated period, with the 9 - 1 reverse spread strategy as the main approach. The price pressure still has room and time to release due to the concentrated listing of European rapeseed and potential downward pressure on crude oil. However, if the crude oil price center rises later, the weak fundamentals will not lead to much downward space. There are potential long - term positives in production and demand, and there may be opportunities to go long on palm oil at low levels at the end of the third quarter [2][6]. - Soybean Oil: It is also in a state of weak current situation and strong future expectations. The inventory may reach a high point in July, and the opening of soybean meal imports may tighten the supply of soybean oil. After the third quarter, if there is no actual purchase of US soybeans, there is a large upward space for the crushing profit and Brazilian premium in October. There may be opportunities to go long on soybean oil and narrow the spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil, while observing the expected change of the palm oil inventory inflection point and the change of the US soybean oil biodiesel policy [5]. 3. Summary by Directory Last Week's View and Logic - Palm Oil: Its fundamental situation changed little, mainly following the fluctuations of crude oil and US soybean oil under the influence of the sentiment of the US spending bill. The 09 contract of palm oil rose 1.15% last week [1]. - Soybean Oil: The weak current - situation trading of domestic soybean oil continued. When US soybeans and crude oil rose together, soybean oil was not significantly driven, and the spread between soybean oil and palm oil narrowed. The 09 contract of soybean oil fell 0.72% last week [1]. This Week's View and Logic - Palm Oil: The market lacks clear trading contradictions. It shows a volatile and slightly stronger pattern following crude oil and US soybean oil. The continuous increase in Malaysia's production from June to August is uncertain, and the 2025 production is estimated to be around 19.2 million tons. There is a risk that the production from July to August may be lower than that of the same period last year. The supply and demand in the producing areas are both strong, and the inventory - reduction expectation in Malaysia in June is very small. In Indonesia, the price of various palm oils and fruit bunches is high, and the sentiment of traders is relatively positive. The US biodiesel policy will lead to a reduction of at least 1.4 million tons of US soybean oil supply in the 25/26 period, which will drive the upward movement of the international oil market. However, it has limited improvement on the recent fundamentals of palm oil. There are different views on Malaysia's palm oil production this year. If the good yield in Malaysia and Indonesia continues from July to August, there will be a large inventory - accumulation pressure from August to September. If the crude oil price center rises, the downward space of palm oil will be limited [2]. - Soybean Oil: It is in a weak - reality and strong - expectation pattern. The inventory may reach a high point in July, and the opening of soybean meal imports may tighten the supply. After the third quarter, if there is no actual purchase of US soybeans, there is a large upward space for the crushing profit and Brazilian premium in October. There may be opportunities to go long on soybean oil and narrow the spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil, while observing the expected change of the palm oil inventory inflection point and the change of the US soybean oil biodiesel policy [5]. Basic Market Data of Futures Contracts - Prices and Price Changes: The main - continuous contract of palm oil closed at 8,472 yuan/ton, up 1.15%; the main - continuous contract of soybean oil closed at 7,944 yuan/ton, down 0.72%; the main - continuous contract of rapeseed oil closed at 9,607 yuan/ton, up 1.49%. The main - continuous contract of Malaysian palm oil closed at 4,062 ringgit/ton, up 1.25%, and the main - continuous contract of CBOT soybean oil closed at 54.54 cents/pound, up 3.65% [8]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of the main - continuous contract of palm oil was 2,596,094 lots, with a decrease of 406,426 lots; the open interest was 451,187 lots, with an increase of 679 lots. The trading volume of the main - continuous contract of soybean oil was 3,002,520 lots, with a decrease of 268,035 lots; the open interest was 544,238 lots, with a decrease of 20,407 lots. The trading volume of the main - continuous contract of rapeseed oil was 4,101,631 lots, with a decrease of 195,915 lots; the open interest was 323,968 lots, with an increase of 4,565 lots [8]. - Price Spreads: The spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil for the 09 contract was 1,663 yuan/ton, up 13.59%; the spread between soybean oil and palm oil for the 09 contract was - 528 yuan/ton, down 41.18%. The 9 - 1 spread of palm oil was 0 yuan/ton, up 100%; the 9 - 1 spread of soybean oil was 14 yuan/ton, down 68.18%; the 9 - 1 spread of rapeseed oil was 71 yuan/ton, up 1.43% [8]. - Warehouse Receipts: The number of palm oil warehouse receipts was 670 lots, an increase of 200 lots compared with last week; the number of soybean oil warehouse receipts was 22,977 lots, an increase of 4,095 lots; the number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts was 805 lots, an increase of 705 lots [8]. Core Fundamental Data of Oils - Palm Oil in Producing Areas: Malaysia's palm oil production decreased month - on - month in June, and the inventory remained flat. In Indonesia, the inventory level is not expected to rise further after the second quarter, and the price spread between Indonesia and Malaysia has increased. The export volume of Malaysian palm oil from June 1 - 30 was 1,382,460 tons, a 4.7% increase compared with the same period last month [10][12]. - Demand - Side Data: India's palm oil import profit declined, and the profit of sunflower oil was significantly better. The CNF spread between soybean oil and palm oil in India rebounded rapidly. The EU's cumulative import of palm oil decreased by 270,000 tons in 2025, and the cumulative import of four major oils decreased by 540,000 tons [12][13]. - Basis Data: The basis of palm oil (in South China) for the 09 contract was 20, and the basis of soybean oil (in Jiangsu) declined [13].