固定收益周报：关注股债性价比何时重回偏向债券-20250706

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not provide the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Chinese economy is in a marginal de - leveraging process. The growth rate of the real - sector debt is expected to decline, and the government aims to stabilize the macro - leverage ratio. The large - scale debt resolution is beneficial for the overall economy [1][17]. - In the short term, the stock - bond ratio may fluctuate, but in the long run, it tends to favor bonds. The stock style tends to favor value stocks, and the bond configuration window is open, but the trading space is limited [16][22]. - During the de - leveraging cycle, the stock - bond ratio favors equities to a limited extent, and value stocks are more likely to outperform. The recommended investment portfolio includes the Dividend Index (40% position), the Shanghai 50 Index (40% position), and the 30 - year Treasury Bond ETF (20% position) [7][16][23]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 National Balance Sheet Analysis - Liability Side: In May 2025, the real - sector debt growth rate was 8.9%, down from 9.0% previously. It is expected to decline to around 8% by the end of the year. The government debt growth rate is expected to rise to 15.3% in June and then decline to around 12.5% by the end of the year. The money market has been loosening recently, but it is unlikely to remain so [1][17][18]. - Asset Side: The physical volume data in May was weaker than in April. The annual nominal economic growth target is around 4.9%. It remains to be seen whether this will be the central target for the next 1 - 2 years [5][19]. 3.2 Stock - Bond Ratio and Stock - Bond Style - Last week, the money market continued to loosen. The stock market was bullish, and the bond market was stable. The stock - bond ratio favored stocks, but the equity style shifted to value stocks. The short - and long - term bond yields were relatively stable [6][21]. - In the long run, during the de - leveraging cycle, the stock - bond ratio favors bonds, and the equity style favors value stocks. Currently, long - term bonds have a slightly higher cost - performance ratio than value - type equity assets [7][22]. 3.3 Industry Recommendation 3.3.1 Industry Performance Review - This week, the A - share market rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 1.4%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 1.25%, and the ChiNext Index up 1.5%. Among the Shenwan primary industries, steel, building materials, banks, pharmaceutical biology, and comprehensive sectors had the largest increases, while computer, non - bank finance, beauty care, transportation, and commercial retail sectors had the largest declines [28]. 3.3.2 Industry Crowding and Trading Volume - As of July 4, the top five crowded industries were electronics, computer, pharmaceutical biology, power equipment, and machinery equipment, while the bottom five were comprehensive, beauty care, petroleum and petrochemical, coal, and real estate. - This week, the top five industries with increased crowding were pharmaceutical biology, public utilities, electronics, machinery equipment, and building materials, while the top five with decreased crowding were non - bank finance, computer, banks, national defense and military industry, and automobiles. - The average daily trading volume of the whole A - share market slightly decreased compared to last week. Steel, building materials, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, pharmaceutical biology, and coal had the highest trading volume growth rates [30][31]. 3.3.3 Industry Valuation and Earnings - This week, among the Shenwan primary industries, steel, banks, building materials, pharmaceutical biology, and media had the largest increases in PE(TTM), while computer, non - bank finance, beauty care, transportation, and commercial retail had the largest declines. - As of July 4, 2025, industries with high 2024 full - year earnings forecasts and relatively low current valuations compared to history included coal, petroleum and petrochemical, transportation, beauty care, and consumer electronics [35][37]. 3.3.4 Industry Prosperity - External Demand: It generally recovered. The global manufacturing PMI rose from 49.5 to 50.3 in June, and most major economies' PMIs increased. The CCFI index decreased by 1.92% week - on - week. Port cargo throughput increased. South Korea's export growth rate rose from - 1.3% in May to 4.3% in June, and Vietnam's export growth rate slightly decreased from 21% in April to 20.7% in May [39]. - Domestic Demand: The second - hand housing price remained flat last week, and quantity indicators showed mixed trends. Highway truck traffic increased. The capacity utilization rate of ten industries rebounded in May and continued to rise in June. Automobile trading volume was at a relatively high level in the same period of history, new - home trading volume was at a historical low, and second - hand home trading volume declined seasonally [39]. 3.3.5 Public Fund Market Review - In the first week of July (June 30 - July 4), most active public equity funds underperformed the CSI 300. As of July 4, the net asset value of active public equity funds was 3.55 trillion yuan, slightly down from 3.66 trillion yuan in Q4 2024 [55]. 3.3.6 Industry Recommendation - During the de - leveraging cycle, the stock - bond ratio favors equities to a limited extent, and value stocks are more likely to outperform. Dividend - type stocks should generally have three characteristics: no balance - sheet expansion, good earnings, and survival. - Based on these characteristics and the under - allocation situation in the public fund quarterly reports, the recommended A + H dividend portfolio includes 20 A + H stocks, and the A - share portfolio includes 20 A - share stocks, mainly concentrated in industries such as banks, telecommunications, petroleum and petrochemical, and transportation [9][59].