智利6月发运仍是低位，市场博弈表需实际成色

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for lithium carbonate is "Oscillation" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, lithium salt prices showed a strong and oscillating trend. The closing price of LC2507 increased by 0.7% month - on - month to 63,700 yuan/ton, and the closing price of LC2509 remained flat at 63,300 yuan/ton. The spot average prices of SMM battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 1.9% month - on - month to 62,300 and 60,700 yuan/ton respectively. The price of lithium hydroxide continued to be weak. The average prices of SMM coarse - grained and micronized battery - grade lithium hydroxide decreased by 0.7% and 0.6% month - on - month to 57,600 and 62,700 yuan/ton respectively. The price difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate widened by 0.2 yuan to 0.47 yuan/ton [2][12][13] - Driven by the difference in demand expectations, the center of the futures market has risen from 59,000 yuan to around 63,000 yuan. Last week, prices oscillated and adjusted, and the rigid procurement demand of downstream enterprises was gradually released, which confirmed the better - than - expected production schedule. During the rebound, the price of lithium ore increased rapidly, but the profit of the lithium salt processing link remained around the break - even point. Looking forward, domestic salt plants are in a state of both maintenance and resumption of production, and domestic production may still increase slightly month - on - month. However, the shipments from Chile and Argentina remain low, so the overall supply pressure is limited. The focus of market game may still be on the demand side. It is necessary to dynamically confirm the actual demand based on the trading situation in the spot market. In terms of strategies, it is still recommended to pay attention to the opportunities of buying on dips and positive spreads, and patiently wait for a more suitable time to arrange medium - term short positions [4][18][19] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Chile's Shipment in June Remained Low, and the Market Competed for the Actual Quality of Apparent Demand - In June, Chile exported a total of 17,000 tons of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide, remaining flat month - on - month and decreasing by 26% year - on - year. Among them, the export to China was 10,200 tons, increasing by 5.9% month - on - month and decreasing by 41% year - on - year. The shipments have remained low for two consecutive months, corresponding to the alleviation of China's import pressure in July - August. From January to June, Chile exported a total of 126,000 tons of lithium carbonate, a year - on - year decrease of 8%. Among them, the export to China was 83,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 17%. In terms of lithium sulfate, in June, Chile shipped 7,700 tons (3,800 tons of LCE) of lithium sulfate to China, a month - on - month decrease of 21% and a year - on - year increase of 2404%. From January to June, the total shipment of lithium sulfate to China was 44,700 tons (22,400 tons of LCE), a year - on - year increase of 172% [3][13] 3.2 Weekly Industry News Review - Ganfeng Lithium completed the acquisition of the remaining 40% equity of Mali Lithium. The first - phase annual production capacity of the Goulamina lithium spodumene project in Mali is 506,000 tons of lithium concentrate, and the production capacity is gradually being released [20] - Kodal Minerals signed a purchase agreement for lithium spodumene concentrate from the Bougouni lithium project in southern Mali. The first - phase project has an annual production capacity of 100,000 - 120,000 tons of lithium concentrate [20] - In June, Chile's export of lithium carbonate to China increased slightly. Considering the shipping cycle, the goods are expected to arrive at Chinese ports in July - August [21] - Zangge Mining's subsidiary obtained the construction project construction permit for the Mamilcuo mining project [21] - Qinghai Huixin's 20,000 - ton/year lithium carbonate project was successfully commissioned, and it can produce about 15 tons of qualified products per day [22] 3.3 Key High - Frequency Data Monitoring of the Industrial Chain 3.3.1 Resource End: The Spot Quote of Lithium Concentrate Rebounded - The spot average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) increased from 629 US dollars/ton to 653 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month increase of 3.8% [13] 3.3.2 Lithium Salt: The Futures Market Oscillated at a High Level - The closing prices of LC2507 and LC2509 showed different trends, and the spot average prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased. The price of lithium hydroxide continued to be weak, and the price difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate widened [2][12][13] 3.3.3 Downstream Intermediates: Quotes Slightly Rebounded - The prices of downstream materials such as lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and cobalt acid lithium showed different degrees of slight increases or remained flat [13] 3.3.4 Terminal: The Penetration Rate of New Energy Vehicles in China Rebounded in May - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China rebounded in May, and the installed capacity and production and sales of power batteries also showed certain trends [46][51][55]