全球资产配置每周聚焦：美国就业数据超预期引发再通胀交易，美股散户情绪继续走高-20250706

Global Asset Price Review - The US employment and PMI data released this week alleviated recession fears, with June unemployment at 4.1%, better than the expected 4.3%, and non-farm payrolls increasing by 147,000, exceeding the forecast of 106,000. The ISM non-manufacturing PMI index was 50.8, above the expected 50.6 [3][9] - The S&P 500 index rose by 1.72%, outperforming other markets such as the CSI 300 (1.54%) and developed markets (1.31%), while emerging markets saw a modest increase of 0.25%. In contrast, the Stoxx Europe 600 and Nikkei 225 declined by 0.46% and 0.85%, respectively [3][9] - Commodity prices saw increases, with crude oil rising by 3.27% and gold by 4.25% [3][12] Global Fund Flows - There was a significant inflow into US fixed income funds, totaling $9.4 billion, while Chinese and Japanese equity markets experienced outflows of $3.19 billion and $2.22 billion, respectively. This indicates a shift in investor sentiment towards safer assets [15][16] - In the US equity market, funds flowed into financials, consumer goods, and industrials, while real estate and healthcare sectors saw outflows. In China, funds flowed into financials, technology, and healthcare, with outflows from communication, consumer, and energy sectors [15][16] Global Asset Valuation - The ERP (Equity Risk Premium) for the CSI 300 decreased by 4 percentage points to 69%, while the Shanghai Composite's ERP fell by 3 percentage points to 62%. The current ERP levels for both indices are the lowest since 2006 [3][9] - The S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq have ERP percentiles of 2%, indicating a relatively low risk premium compared to historical averages [3][9] Global Economic Data - The US PMI and employment data exceeded market expectations, contributing to a more optimistic economic outlook. The June unemployment rate and job additions suggest resilience in the labor market [3][9] - The Federal Reserve Chairman indicated that the stable economic activity allows for a potential interest rate cut in July, with market expectations showing a 69.4% probability of a rate cut by September [3][9]