海外经济跟踪周报20250706：美国经济数据好转，关税风险临近-20250706

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - US economic data improved, but tariff risks are approaching. Optimism about the US economic outlook increased, driving up the US stock market, while European stocks fell due to China's anti - dumping duties on EU brandy. Market expectations for interest rate cuts decreased, and there were various developments in trade negotiations and fiscal policies [1][10]. Summary by Directory 1. Overseas Market One - Week Review - Equity Markets: US stocks rose, with the S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq up 1.72%, 2.30%, and 1.62% respectively. European, Japanese, and South Korean stocks fell. The decline of European stocks was due to China's anti - dumping duties on EU brandy [1][10]. - Foreign Exchange: The US dollar fluctuated and slightly declined, with the dollar index down 0.28%. The euro, yen, and RMB appreciated against the US dollar [10]. - Interest Rates: US Treasury yields rose. The 2Y and 10Y US Treasuries rose 15BP and 6BP respectively, as market expectations for interest rate cuts cooled [11]. - Commodities: Oil prices rose, with WTI crude up 3.0%. Gold slightly declined, with COMEX gold down 0.3% [11]. 2. Overseas Policies and Key News 2.1 Overseas Central Bank Dynamics - Fed Chairman Powell remained neutral, while other officials were hawkish. Market expectations for interest rate cuts cooled significantly, with the expected number of cuts this year dropping from 3 to 2 [2][27]. 2.2 Trump Policy Tracking - Trade Negotiations: The US and Vietnam reached an agreement. Vietnam will pay a 20% tariff to the US and a 40% tariff on transshipment goods. The US hopes to open the Vietnamese market [3][32]. - "Big and Beautiful" Act: Trump signed the "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill, raising the US debt ceiling by $5 trillion. It is expected to increase the US deficit by nearly $3.4 trillion in the next decade [3][32]. 3. Overseas Economic Fundamental High - Frequency Tracking 3.1 Overall Prosperity - Bloomberg's median forecast shows that the US recession probability is 37.5% (40% a month ago), and the eurozone recession probability is 30%. The economic activities in the US and Germany cooled [39][41]. 3.2 Employment - The number of initial jobless claims decreased to 233,000, lower than expected and lower than the same period in 2024. The number of continuous unemployment benefit recipients remained flat [46]. 3.3 Demand - US retail sales rebounded, airport security checks decreased, and railway transportation increased. Mortgage rates slightly decreased, and real - estate market activities slightly picked up [51]. 3.4 Production - The US production side remained more prosperous than the same period last year, with high utilization rates of crude steel and refinery capacities [55]. 3.5 Shipping - International freight rates continued to decline. The export demand from Chinese ports in Ningbo and Shanghai also decreased [57][59]. 3.6 Price - US retail gasoline prices fell, but inflation expectations in the swap market rose [61]. 3.7 Financial Conditions - US financial pressure decreased, and credit spreads narrowed [64]. 4. Next Week's Overseas Important Event Reminders - The suspension period of "reciprocal tariffs" expires, and the Fed will release the minutes of the June FOMC meeting [6].