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镍:矿端支撑有所松动,冶炼端限制上方弹性不锈钢:库存轻微消化,钢价修复但弹性有限
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-07-06 11:53

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Nickel: No clear investment rating provided, but analysis suggests potential downward pressure and limited upside [4] - Stainless Steel: No clear investment rating, expected to trade in a narrow range [5] - Industrial Silicon: Recommended for short - selling, with limited upside potential [30] - Polysilicon: Suggested to hold positions cautiously and wait for policy details [30] - Lithium Carbonate: Recommended to short on rallies, with attention on upper - limit pressure [56] - Palm Oil: In a weak - reality, strong - expectation situation. Short - term seasonal short - selling is possible, and long - position building at low levels can be considered in late Q3 [85] - Soybean Oil: Weak reality persists, waiting for effective drivers from the US soybean side [84] 2. Core Views - Nickel and Stainless Steel: The support at the nickel ore end is weakening, and the smelting end restricts the upside of nickel prices. Stainless steel is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with limited upward momentum for prices [4][5] - Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon: The upside of industrial silicon is limited, and short - selling is recommended. Polysilicon should be observed for policy details, and short - selling can be considered after the market sentiment subsides [30][34] - Lithium Carbonate: The futures profit margin is open, but the upward pressure is significant due to factors such as anti - cut - throat competition and the cancellation of US new - energy subsidies [56][57] - Palm Oil and Soybean Oil: Palm oil is currently influenced by international oil prices, with a weak - reality, strong - expectation situation. Soybean oil's weak reality continues, waiting for effective drivers from the US soybean side [84][85] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - Price Movement: The Shanghai nickel main contract and stainless steel main contract showed certain price fluctuations. For example, the Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 122,270 yuan/ton [14] - Supply and Demand: Nickel ore support is weakening, and stainless steel supply and demand are both weak. The nickel - iron inventory has reached a historical high [4][5] - Inventory Changes: China's refined nickel social inventory increased, while LME nickel inventory decreased. Stainless steel social inventory decreased slightly [6][7] - Market News: There were various events such as potential export restrictions on nickel from Canada, project startups and shutdowns in Indonesia, and policy - related news in the Philippines and Indonesia [10][11] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Price Movement: Industrial silicon futures fluctuated widely, and spot prices rose. Polysilicon futures rose significantly, and spot prices increased [30] - Supply and Demand: Industrial silicon inventory decreased, and polysilicon upstream inventory continued to accumulate. The supply and demand of both showed different trends [31][32] - Market Outlook: Industrial silicon is recommended for short - selling, and polysilicon should be observed for policy details [34][35] Lithium Carbonate - Price Movement: The lithium carbonate main contract fluctuated upwards, with different price changes in futures and spot markets [56] - Supply and Demand: Supply is expected to remain high, but demand is suppressed by factors such as anti - cut - throat competition and US subsidy cancellation. Inventory continues to increase [57][58] - Market Outlook: Short - selling on rallies is recommended, and attention should be paid to the upper - limit pressure [59] Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - Price Movement: Palm oil 09 contract rose 1.15% last week, and soybean oil 09 contract fell 0.72% [84] - Supply and Demand: Palm oil has a situation of uncertain production and potential supply - demand changes. Soybean oil's weak reality persists [84][85] - Market Outlook: Palm oil is in a weak - reality, strong - expectation situation, and soybean oil is waiting for effective drivers from the US soybean side [84][85]