国际时政周评：关税谈判期限临近，特朗普党内地位再巩固

Group 1: Trade Negotiations and Tariffs - Trump announced a trade agreement with Vietnam, imposing a 20% tariff on Vietnamese goods and a 40% tariff on goods transshipped through Vietnam, while Vietnam maintains zero tariffs on U.S. goods[9] - New unilateral tariffs may range from 10% to 70%, with implementation expected around August 1[6] - The U.S. is conducting a 232 investigation into sectors like semiconductors and pharmaceuticals, which began in April, indicating potential short-term tariff risks[15] Group 2: Political Developments - Trump's position within the Republican Party has strengthened following a series of political successes since June, including the signing of the "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill[6] - The U.S. Supreme Court has supported Trump's executive powers, allowing him to pursue his policy agenda without significant judicial challenges[13] - The upcoming G20 finance ministers' meeting and the BRICS+ summit are critical events to monitor for international economic discussions[3] Group 3: Geopolitical Risks - Ongoing geopolitical tensions include the Israel-Palestine conflict and U.S.-Iran negotiations, with a focus on potential ceasefire outcomes and nuclear discussions[16] - The U.S. aims to rebalance its relations with major powers, particularly in the context of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, which presents significant negotiation challenges[18] - The potential for a framework agreement in trade negotiations exists, but countries may shift conflicts to third parties to achieve short-term wins[12]