外汇：美元难以转向

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In the first half of 2025, the global foreign exchange market saw a weakening US dollar and a general strengthening of non - US currencies. The on - shore RMB appreciated about 1.8% against the US dollar, mainly due to a more than 10% drop in the US dollar index, along with China's economic recovery, policy support, and central bank's regulation [6]. - The slowdown of the US economy, rising fiscal deficits and debt risks have increased concerns about the US dollar's credit. In contrast, China's economy continues its moderate recovery, and the narrowing growth gap between the two countries is conducive to the RMB's stability [6]. - With the expectation of falling inflation, the Fed may start cutting interest rates in the fall, which will narrow the Sino - US interest rate spread, reduce capital outflows, and support the RMB [6]. - Although the Trump administration's tariff policies caused short - term fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate in the first half of the year, the RMB's sensitivity to such policies has decreased, and it is expected to only fluctuate significantly under extreme policy scenarios in the second half [7]. - Overall, the RMB exchange rate is expected to continue to fluctuate within a range, showing a trend of "two - way fluctuations and moderate appreciation" [7]. Summary by Directory 2025 H1 USD/CNY Exchange Rate Trend: Policy - led Features in Structural Decline - At the beginning of 2025, the US dollar index was high but started to decline after Trump's new trade protectionist policies. The US dollar index dropped from about 109 to less than 100 from January to May, and the "tariff stick" policy weakened investors' confidence in US dollar assets [12]. - The RMB exchange rate against the US dollar generally appreciated in H1 2025, with the USD/CNY exchange rate fluctuating between 7.1 - 7.45. The RMB showed resilience and recovered quickly after short - term weakening [13]. Macroeconomic and Policy Variables Shape the Exchange Rate's Central Axis - Trump's trade protectionist policies in H1 2025 led to a weakening of the US dollar and changes in the global foreign exchange market's risk - hedging pattern. The RMB faced short - term depreciation pressure [15]. - The Sino - US relationship's temporary easing in May 2025 boosted market sentiment and supported the RMB, although this easing was fragile [16]. Divergence in Domestic and Foreign Economies and Policy Stances Reduced Linkage - In H1 2025, the RMB's appreciation was moderate compared to the decline of the US dollar index, due to China's complex economic recovery and the central bank's policy of maintaining the RMB's stability against a basket of currencies [17]. Economy: Macroeconomic Drivers and Exchange Rate Fluctuations under the Background of Sino - US Policy Divergence - In H1 2025, China's economy had improving domestic demand and fluctuating external demand. The RMB exchange rate remained stable with a slight depreciation tendency. The US economy showed resilience but had hidden risks, and the US dollar remained strong due to high interest rates [34][35]. - In H2 2025, the US inflation and fiscal situation may affect the US dollar index, and China's external demand may weaken, but domestic policies can support the RMB [36][37]. Interest Rate Spread: Continued Inversion and Adjustment Space under Sino - US Policy Divergence - In H1 2025, the 10 - year Sino - US Treasury yield spread was deeply negative, mainly due to the divergence in monetary policies and macro - fundamentals between the two countries [44][45]. - China's central bank aims to maintain exchange rate stability and may be more cautious in policy implementation. The Fed may cut interest rates in H2 2025, which could narrow the Sino - US interest rate spread and relieve the RMB's depreciation pressure [46]. Trade Policy Uncertainty: The RMB Exchange Rate is "Desensitized" to Trade Policy Uncertainty - In H1 2025, Sino - US trade frictions intensified but eased in May. In H2 2025, trade policies still have uncertainties, which may affect exports but have a weakening impact on the RMB exchange rate [52][54]. H2 Trend: The Possibility of a Weakening US Dollar and a Strengthening RMB - From an economic fundamental perspective, the US economy has structural contradictions, while China's economy is recovering. This is favorable for the RMB's strength [55]. - In terms of interest rate spreads, if the Fed cuts interest rates as expected and China's interest rates remain stable, the Sino - US interest rate spread may narrow, supporting the RMB [58]. - Regarding trade policy uncertainty, the RMB exchange rate has become less sensitive to trade frictions, and its pricing will rely more on economic fundamentals and interest rate spread expectations [59]. - In H2 2025, the RMB exchange rate's central axis may continue to decline moderately, and it may even break below 7.0 against the US dollar under certain conditions [60].