EBSCN·2025-07-06 12:41Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [6]. Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that copper prices are expected to rise in 2025 due to tightening supply and improving demand [4]. - The report highlights a continued weakening in demand, particularly in the cable sector, with risks of further declines in production rates for air conditioning units [1][3]. - The report notes that the short-term risk of warehouse squeezing remains, suggesting that copper prices may continue to show strength before returning to a more volatile state [1]. Supply and Demand Summary - Production: In June 2025, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.1349 million tons, a decrease of 0.3% month-on-month but an increase of 12.9% year-on-year [3][65]. - Demand: The cable industry's operating rate decreased by 2.4 percentage points, with the operating rate for cable enterprises at 67.81% as of July 3, 2025 [3][75]. - Inventory: Domestic copper social inventory increased by 1.3%, while LME copper inventory rose by 5.1% [2][24]. Raw Material Insights - Copper Concentrate: Domestic copper concentrate inventory at major ports was 666,000 tons, up 6.8% week-on-week as of July 4, 2025 [2][49]. - Scrap Copper: The price difference between refined copper and scrap copper decreased by 260 RMB/ton, indicating a tighter supply of scrap copper [2][54]. Futures Market Overview - The active contract position for SHFE copper increased by 1.3% week-on-week, with a total position of 216,000 lots as of July 4, 2025 [4][33]. Company Profit Forecasts and Valuations - Western Mining: Stock price at 17.10 RMB, with EPS forecasts of 1.67 RMB for 2025, and a PE ratio of 10 [5]. - Zijin Mining: Stock price at 20.05 RMB, with EPS forecasts of 1.60 RMB for 2025, and a PE ratio of 13 [5]. - Luoyang Molybdenum: Stock price at 8.54 RMB, with EPS forecasts of 0.62 RMB for 2025, and a PE ratio of 14 [5]. - Jincheng Mining: Stock price at 45.42 RMB, with EPS forecasts of 3.61 RMB for 2025, and a PE ratio of 13 [5].