《美丽大法案》：再次引爆“国债恐慌”？

Group 1: Overview of the "Beautiful Bill" - The "Beautiful Bill" is expected to expand the total deficit by approximately $4.1 trillion, primarily continuing existing policies[1] - The bill includes tax cuts, increased spending on immigration enforcement, expanded defense spending, and cuts to welfare and renewable energy subsidies[1] - The overall deficit scale ranks among the highest since World War II, second only to the 1981 Reagan tax cuts when measured as a percentage of GDP[1] Group 2: Economic Effects - The bill is projected to moderately boost U.S. GDP growth by an average of 0.1 percentage points annually from 2025 to 2034, with the most significant impact occurring between 2026 and 2028, potentially reaching 0.8 percentage points[2] - The lowest 10% of income households may see a 3.9% decrease in income due to cuts in medical assistance and SNAP benefits, while the highest 10% could experience an average income increase of 2.3%[2] - Traditional and capital-intensive industries are expected to benefit, while the renewable energy and electric vehicle sectors may suffer due to reduced tax credits[2] Group 3: U.S. Treasury Bond Liquidity - The supply of U.S. Treasury bonds is expected to remain stable, with manageable macroeconomic conditions, although there may still be upward pressure on term premiums[3] - The projected increase in the deficit rate for next year is around 0.7%, potentially reaching approximately 7%[3] - The federal government's leverage ratio is anticipated to reach 103% by 2026 and 116% by 2030, but the risk of a sovereign debt crisis remains low[3] Group 4: Market Reactions and Asset Performance - Major U.S. stock indices rose collectively, with the S&P 500 increasing by 1.6% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average by 2.3%[4] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 6 basis points to 4.4%, while the dollar index fell by 0.3% to 96.99[4] - The upcoming expiration of tariff exemptions raises concerns about potential tariff escalations, with about 20 countries facing the possibility of reinstated tariffs[4]