沥青供需格局有望延续，市场矛盾不突出

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The asphalt market currently shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, with low inventory and a lower-than-seasonal inventory accumulation rate in the first half of the year. Supply pressure and market contradictions are limited, providing support for spot prices but lacking upward momentum. - Looking ahead to the second half of the year, there are no significant expected changes in the supply and demand of asphalt. The seasonal recovery of terminal demand and the marginal improvement of refinery tax pressure are insufficient to form a new trend. With weak fundamental drivers in the asphalt market, the futures price will be more affected by crude oil price fluctuations. - Based on the analysis of the oil market fundamentals, if there are no major geopolitical or macro - events, the asphalt price center may show a short - term oscillation and a medium - term slow downward trend. Notably, the downward elasticity of asphalt is weaker than that of crude oil, and the crack spread may be continuously supported in the future. - Strategy: Unilateral trading is expected to be oscillatory, with short - term support and a medium - term potential to follow the downward shift of the oil price center. There are no specific strategies for inter - delivery, inter - commodity, spot - futures, or options trading [5]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Crude Oil: Current Fundamentals are Fair but Expectations are Weak, and the Cost Center May Further Decline in the Fourth Quarter - In the first half of this year, international oil prices fluctuated repeatedly without a sustained trend, mainly due to increased geopolitical and macro - level disturbances and significantly higher market volatility. - At the beginning of the year, due to increased US sanctions on Russia, the market worried about a decline in Russian oil supply, and crude oil prices rose rapidly, with Brent once breaking through the $80/barrel mark. However, subsequent data verified that Russian exports remained resilient, and the refinery maintenance season led to a decline in raw material procurement demand, causing oil prices to gradually fall from the high point in late January. - After Trump took office as the new US president, the market started to trade the impact of his policies, including expectations of easing the Russia - Ukraine conflict, tariff increases, pushing OPEC to increase production, canceling new energy support policies, accelerating LNG project export approvals, and exerting extreme pressure on Iran. These policies had both positive and negative impacts on the oil market, but the negative effects were more prominent. - In April, Trump officially announced his reciprocal tariff policy, which exceeded market expectations in terms of scope and magnitude and led to counter - measures from trading partners, including China. If fully implemented, it would significantly impact global economic trade and oil consumption. Coupled with OPEC's decision to gradually increase production quotas, oil prices accelerated their decline, with Brent once falling below the $60/barrel mark. - Subsequently, there were signs of marginal improvement in the tariff conflict. The US postponed tariffs for most trading partners until July 9, and on May 12, China and the US reached an important consensus and issued a joint statement, reducing the tariff increase from 125% to 10% (with a 3 - month suspension for another 24%), leading to a rebound in oil prices. - In June, the crude oil market was disturbed by geopolitical conflicts, and volatility increased significantly. The Israel - Iran conflict led to concerns about oil supply disruptions, causing a sharp short - term increase in international oil prices, with Brent approaching the $80/barrel mark. After the cease - fire was announced, oil prices quickly fell back [12][13][14]. 3.2 In the First Half of 2025, the Asphalt Market Maintained a Pattern of Weak Supply and Demand, and the Crack Spread Rose Significantly - In the first half of 2025, the domestic asphalt market generally maintained a pattern of weak supply and demand with relatively few market contradictions. Low refinery operating rates and production, combined with low inventory levels, provided strong support for the spot market. However, weak terminal demand restricted the upward movement of the market. - From January to June, the main contract of BU fluctuated in the range of 3200 - 3900 yuan/ton, with a higher price center compared to last year. Geopolitical and macro - factors increased crude oil price volatility, which in turn affected asphalt futures prices. - In terms of the crack spread, asphalt was more resilient than crude oil. As the oil price center declined, the crack spread of BU to Brent rose from - 348 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to - 4 yuan/ton at the end of June, once entering positive territory [23]. 3.3 In the Second Half of 2025, There are No Significant Variables in the Asphalt Market, and Contradictions are Relatively Minor - The terminal demand for asphalt still lacks growth drivers. In the first five months of this year, the total actual demand for domestic asphalt was 1197000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.1%. Road asphalt consumption was 871000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.5%. Other downstream sectors had minor changes. - Looking ahead to the second half of the year, road asphalt demand still lacks clear growth expectations. The lagging impact of suspended infrastructure projects last year and the focus on "new infrastructure" in fiscal policies limit the growth space and momentum of domestic asphalt demand. However, there is seasonal improvement potential in the third quarter after the end of the rainy season in the South [27]. 3.4 The Consumption Tax Deduction Ratio of Some Local Refineries has been Increased, but the Supply Growth of Asphalt Refineries is Still Restricted - Since the beginning of this year, the theoretical production profit of asphalt refineries has been in the negative range due to weak terminal demand, tight overseas heavy crude oil supply, and increased costs of sanctioned oil. After the consumption tax deduction ratio was reduced from full to 50% - 70%, the cost of using fuel oil as a processing raw material for refineries without crude oil quotas and limited device adjustment capabilities increased significantly. - The operating rate of the asphalt industry has been suppressed at a low level. Since the beginning of this year, the domestic asphalt device operating rate has been around 30%, similar to last year's level. - In the second half of the year, there is no strong motivation for a large - scale release of asphalt refinery supply, but marginal changes are worth noting. Some refineries have increased production due to a 25% increase in the consumption tax deduction ratio, but this only applies to refineries with crude oil quotas. - In the long - term, the over - capacity of asphalt is the core factor suppressing production profits. As of now, the national asphalt production capacity is expected to reach 79.21 million tons/year, far exceeding the consumption level of over 30 million tons. The government has proposed to promote the withdrawal of backward production capacity, and the asphalt supply will continue to be restricted [40][41][43]. 3.5 The US Revoked Venezuelan Oil Licenses, and the Discount of Diluted Asphalt is Running at a High Level - Trump revoked the oil licenses of companies such as Chevron in Venezuela. If future negotiations do not progress and US policies do not change, Venezuelan oil production may decline significantly in the medium - term, but it may be diverted from the US to Asia in the short - term. - As OPEC gradually relaxes production cuts, Middle Eastern oil - producing countries may increase the supply of medium - heavy crude oil, alleviating the tight supply of overseas heavy oil to some extent. - After the expansion of the Canadian TMX pipeline last year, it can transport heavy crude oil to the west coast for export, mainly to the US West Coast, the US Gulf Coast, and the Asia - Pacific market, becoming a new source of heavy crude oil supply for China and restricting the upward space of the diluted asphalt discount [52]. 3.6 The Asphalt Market has Limited Contradictions and Support at the Lower Level - The asphalt market currently shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, with low inventory and limited supply pressure and market contradictions. Spot prices are supported but lack upward momentum. - In the second half of the year, there are no significant expected changes in supply and demand. The asphalt price center may show a short - term oscillation and a medium - term slow downward trend, and the crack spread may be continuously supported [63].