伊朗地缘冲突暂缓，传统下游等待投产兑现

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The methanol market is expected to weaken first and then strengthen in the second half of the year. In the short term, due to the easing of the Iran - Israel geopolitical conflict, the resumption of Iranian plants, and concentrated arrivals in July, the market is entering a inventory - accumulation cycle. However, high overseas gas prices may lead to earlier and more severe winter maintenance in Iran in the fourth quarter, and there is concentrated downstream production capacity coming on - stream in the fourth quarter, which will improve the supply - demand situation [1][8][9]. - For the 01 contract, it is expected to be weak in the third quarter and strong in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to wait for a callback to a low level to look for long - position opportunities in the fourth quarter. In terms of inter - period spreads, the 09 contract is more related to the current inventory - accumulation situation, the 01 contract is more about trading the expectation of Iranian winter maintenance. The 9 - 1 spread is suitable for reverse arbitrage at high levels, and the 1 - 5 spread is suitable for positive arbitrage at low levels [10]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Market News and Important Data - In 2025, the nominal new methanol production capacity is temporarily set at 335 million tons per year, with a nominal capacity growth rate of 4.6%. The production capacity has basically been realized, including the 170 - million - ton - per - year MaOil 3 that started production at the end of 2024 and plans to gradually resume production in July, and the 165 - million - ton - per - year Iranian apadana that started production in April 2025 with a low load [6][19]. - The Iran - Israel geopolitical conflict in mid - June 2025 led to the concentrated shutdown of Iranian plants, but then the conflict eased and the plant operation rate gradually recovered. However, due to high gas prices, it is expected that Iranian winter maintenance will be earlier and more severe this year [6]. - From April to May 2025, the inventory at Jiangsu ports was at a seasonal low, and the Taicang basis once reached 170 yuan/ton. After the Iran - Israel conflict in mid - June, the basis further increased. After the conflict eased, the port inventory increased, but the basis reached 400 yuan/ton, indicating limited tradable inventory. After the paper - goods delivery in June, the port basis dropped to around 160 yuan/ton in July [6][51]. - For new MTO projects, Shandong Lianhong Phase II MTO (with a methanol demand of 1.3 million tons per year) is planned to start production around November 2025, and Guangxi Huayi MTO (with a methanol demand of 2.6 million tons per year) is planned to start production at the end of 2025 or early 2026. Some MTO enterprises plan to reduce production or shut down, and attention should be paid to the load changes of enterprises such as Nanjing Chengzhi, Xingxing, and Fude [6]. Market Analysis - The short - term market is entering an inventory - accumulation cycle due to the resumption of Iranian plants and concentrated arrivals in July. But in the fourth quarter, high overseas gas prices may lead to earlier and more severe Iranian winter maintenance, and concentrated downstream production capacity coming on - stream will improve the supply - demand situation [1][8][9]. Methanol Port Supply - Demand Analysis External New Devices - The original expected overseas new production capacity in 2025 was 5 million tons per year with a growth rate of 6.8%, but due to the Iranian geopolitical conflict, the 1.65 - million - ton - per - year Iranian dena plant's production start was postponed. The new production capacity is now 3.35 million tons per year with a growth rate of 4.6%, and the production capacity has basically been realized [19]. Overseas Existing Devices - In 2025, there were two periods of low operation rates: the Iranian winter maintenance period before March and the period of concentrated shutdowns due to the Iran - Israel conflict in mid - June. After the conflict eased, the Iranian plant operation rate gradually recovered. The overall overseas methanol operation rate is high, with a high rate in Iran and a low rate in non - Iranian regions [24]. - From January to May 2025, China's monthly average methanol imports decreased significantly compared with the same period in previous years. The high gas price in the Netherlands may lead to earlier and more severe Iranian winter maintenance this year [24][26]. - The South American operation rate has been low since the end of 2024, and the volume from South America to China remains low. The operation rates in North America and Europe were low from January to March but rebounded in the second quarter. The New Zealand operation rate has declined since October 2024, and the volume to China has reached a historical low, while the volume from MaOil to China increased significantly in May 2025 [28][32][38]. Internal - External Price Ratio - From April to May 2025, the import window calculated based on China's spot price was briefly opened, but the paper - goods and futures still had a certain discount. The price differences between Europe, America, Southeast Asia and China have decreased, indicating that the port price in China is relatively overvalued [49]. Port Inventory - Due to the previous decline in imports, the inventory at Jiangsu ports was at a seasonal low from April to May, and the Taicang basis increased. After the conflict eased, the inventory increased, but the basis further increased, indicating limited tradable inventory. After the paper - goods delivery in June, the port basis dropped in July [51]. - The inventory at Zhejiang ports and the methanol inventory of MTO enterprises are higher than the same period last year, while the inventory at South China ports is at a seasonal low. With the arrival of imports in July and the expected maintenance of some MTO plants, the ports are expected to continue to accumulate inventory in July [56]. MTO New Situation - For integrated MTO, the three lines of Inner Mongolia Baofeng have all been put into production. For external - purchase MTO, Shandong Lianhong Phase II MTO is planned to start production around November 2025, and Guangxi Huayi MTO is planned to start production at the end of 2025 or early 2026. The new production capacity is more concentrated from the fourth quarter to the end of the year [65]. MTO Existing Devices - The loss of external - purchase MTO reached a historical low in June 2025, and some MTO enterprises plan to reduce production or shut down. The current MTO profit is at a historical low, and the load changes of MTO enterprises will affect the short - term price trend [70]. Regional Price Difference - The port inventory is low, and the port price is relatively overvalued compared with the inland price. The arbitrage windows from Inner Mongolia to East China and from Lunan to Taicang have been opened. After the weakening of MTBE operation, the price difference between Lubei and the Northwest is low. The arbitrage window from Sichuan - Chongqing to East China has also been opened. After the paper - goods delivery, the valuation in East China declined in July [76]. Inland Supply - Demand Analysis Inland Methanol New Situation - In 2025, the planned methanol production capacity is 10.9 million tons, including 2.6 million tons per year of non - integrated methanol (1.1 million tons per year has been realized, but the load of Xinjiang Zhongtai is not high) with a non - integrated nominal capacity growth rate of 2.9% and an actual growth rate of 1.3%, and 10.3 million tons per year of integrated methanol (8.4 million tons per year has been realized, from Baofeng's three lines). The non - integrated production pressure is not large [79]. Inland Existing Device Load - The coal - to - methanol production profit is high, and the operation rate is at a high level. The non - integrated coal - based methanol had a spring maintenance from early March to late April, and the operation rate decreased, but it was higher than the historical average in other periods due to good production profits [85]. - Due to high gas prices, the gas - based methanol is in greater losses and has a low operation rate. The coke - oven gas - based methanol spring maintenance period has passed [89][90]. Non - Integrated Coal - Based - The non - integrated coal - based methanol operation rate is at a high level due to good production profits. Although coal prices may rise seasonally in summer, the production profit of coal - to - methanol is still high, and the operation rate is expected to remain high [85]. Gas - Based - Due to high gas prices, the losses of gas - based methanol have increased, and the operation rate is low. Attention should be paid to the possibility of additional loss - based maintenance of gas - based methanol [89]. Coke - Oven Gas - Based - The spring maintenance period of coke - oven gas - based methanol has passed, and there is a certain correlation between its operation rate and the coking operation rate [90][94]. Inland Inventory - In 2025, the inventory of northwest enterprises is generally lower than that in 2024, indicating strong demand from traditional downstream industries. The inventory of east - China enterprises is also healthy, and the pending orders are satisfactory [98]. Traditional Downstream - Among traditional downstream industries, the cumulative output growth rate of formaldehyde from January to May was 23%, MTBE was 8.6%, while the growth rate of acetic acid and BDO slowed down significantly. The operation rate of MTBE declined in May due to factors such as a decline in export growth and a decrease in gasoline consumption. Although the operation rate of acetic acid is acceptable, the production profit has been compressed. The production and operation of formaldehyde are satisfactory, and the demand for dimethyl ether has been decreasing [101][105]. Traditional Downstream New Situation - In 2025, the new nominal methanol demand converted from traditional downstream industries is 5.59 million tons per year, reaching a historical high. The main contribution comes from the acetic acid production plan, which is postponed to the second half of the year, especially concentrated in the fourth quarter. BDO also has concentrated production in the fourth quarter. The new production of traditional downstream industries in Q3 and Q4 will drive the nominal methanol demand by 1.2% and 3.1% respectively [123]. Summary and Strategy - In the short term, due to the end of the Iranian conflict, the resumption of Iranian plants, high arrival pressure in July, and the expected MTO maintenance, the port market is expected to accumulate inventory in July, and the market is weak. The port price in East China is relatively overvalued compared with the inland price. - However, due to high gas prices, there is an expectation of earlier and more severe Iranian winter maintenance in the fourth quarter, and the expected start - up of Shandong Lianhong Phase II MTO in November and the concentrated production of traditional downstream industries in Q4. There is an opportunity to participate in long positions in the fourth quarter after the methanol price回调s. The 09 contract reflects the weak current situation, and the 01 contract reflects strong expectations. The 9 - 1 spread is suitable for reverse arbitrage at high levels [125].