国泰君安期货研究周报：农产品-20250706

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Palm Oil: It is in a situation of weak reality and strong expectation. The short - term pressure comes from the复产 situation. If there is excessive inventory accumulation from August to September or poor demand sentiment in China and India, it is suitable for seasonal short - allocation, mainly using the 9 - 1 reverse spread strategy. There is still room for price pressure to be released due to the concentrated listing of European rapeseed and potential downward pressure on crude oil. In the second half of the year, there are potential positives in production and demand. After the fundamental problems are digested in the third quarter, there may be opportunities to go long on palm oil at low positions [4][5][9]. - Soybean Oil: It is also in a pattern of weak reality and strong expectation. Currently, inventory is accumulating rapidly, but it may peak in July. After the third quarter, if there are issues in soybean imports, there may be opportunities to go long on soybean oil and narrow the spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil. Attention should be paid to the expected change in palm oil inventory inflection point and the US soybean oil biodiesel policy [8][9]. - Soybean Meal and Soybean No.1: It is expected that the prices of soybean meal and soybean No.1 futures will fluctuate. For soybean meal, attention should be paid to US trade agreements, US soybean production area weather, and the July USDA supply - demand report. For domestic soybeans, the spot market is stable, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate with the soybean market [22]. - Corn: It is expected to run in a volatile manner. CBOT corn has risen, wheat prices have increased, and corn starch inventory has risen. The futures market has declined due to import corn auctions, but the supply - demand imbalance pattern remains unchanged [42][44][47]. - Sugar: Internationally, it is in low - level consolidation, with a pattern of strong reality and weak expectation. Domestically, it lacks guidance and is in narrow - range consolidation, with an internal - strong and external - weak pattern continuing [79][108]. - Cotton: ICE cotton is in a low - level volatile market, affected by the higher - than - expected US cotton planting area and the approaching deadline of US tariff policy. Domestic cotton futures are also in a volatile trend, with price support from concerns about tight domestic cotton inventory, but limited upward momentum due to poor downstream conditions [109][110][126]. - Hogs: The spot price is running strongly, with tight supply at the beginning of the month and decreased demand. The futures price is also running strongly [130]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - Last Week's Situation: Palm oil followed crude oil and US soybean oil, with the 09 contract rising 1.15%. Soybean oil had weak reality trading, with the 09 contract falling 0.72% [4]. - This Week's Situation: Palm oil is in an oscillatingly strong pattern, but there are uncertainties in Malaysian production from June to August. Indonesian prices are high, and the market is sensitive to the reduction of US soybean oil supply. Soybean oil inventory may peak in July, and there are potential positives after the third quarter [5][8]. - Market Data: Palm oil main - continuous contract had an opening price of 8,366 yuan/ton, a closing price of 8,472 yuan/ton, and a weekly increase of 1.15%. Soybean oil main - continuous contract had an opening price of 7,994 yuan/ton, a closing price of 7,944 yuan/ton, and a weekly decrease of 0.72% [11]. Soybean Meal and Soybean No.1 - Last Week's Situation: US soybean futures prices rose mainly due to the rise of US soybean oil and potential progress in US - China trade negotiations. Domestic soybean meal futures prices were mixed, and soybean No.1 futures prices were weak [17][18]. - International Market Fundamentals: US soybean net sales increased week - on - week, the excellent - good rate was flat, Brazilian soybean CNF premiums and import costs increased, and the USDA planting area report was positive while the quarterly inventory report was negative [18]. - Domestic Spot Situation: For soybean meal, trading volume increased, pick - up volume decreased, basis decreased, inventory increased, and soybean crushing volume decreased. For soybean No.1, the price was stable in the north and rose slightly in the south, and new beans in the northeast were growing well [21][22]. Corn - Market Review: In the spot market, corn prices rose in the week of July 4. In the futures market, prices fell due to import corn auctions, and the basis strengthened [42][43]. - Market Outlook: CBOT corn rose due to expected rainfall. Wheat prices increased, and import corn auctions were active. Corn starch inventory increased, and the futures market declined due to policy - driven imports, but the supply - demand imbalance remained [44][45][47]. Sugar - This Week's Market Review: Internationally, the US dollar index decreased, the US dollar - Brazilian real exchange rate decreased, WTI crude oil prices fell, and New York raw sugar prices fell. Fund net long positions decreased significantly. Domestically, the spot price in Guangxi rose slightly, and Zhengzhou sugar futures prices fell slightly, with a slightly higher basis [77][78]. - Next Week's Market Outlook: Internationally, it is in low - level consolidation, with a pattern of strong reality and weak expectation. Domestically, it lacks guidance and is in narrow - range consolidation, with an internal - strong and external - weak pattern continuing [79]. Cotton - Situation as of July 4: ICE cotton fell 1.28% after the release of the US cotton planting area report. Domestic textile enterprises' operating conditions did not improve, and domestic cotton futures were oscillatingly strong, with limited upward momentum due to poor downstream conditions [109][110]. - Fundamentals: Internationally, US cotton export sales data showed different trends in different periods. Other major cotton - producing and consuming countries had different situations in planting, production, and trade. Domestically, cotton spot trading was weak, prices were stable, and downstream trading was still light [114][115][121]. Hogs - This Week's Market Review (June 30 - July 6): In the spot market, hog prices were running strongly, with tight supply and decreased demand. In the futures market, the price was also running strongly, and the basis decreased slightly [130].