能源化工甲醇周度报告-20250706

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The methanol industry is expected to have a short - term volatile operation, with limited upside and downside potential [2][5] 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic methanol market shows different trends in ports and inland areas. Port prices are supported by low inventory and potential import reduction, while inland prices are influenced by device maintenance and downstream demand [4] - In the short - term, the supply of methanol has decreased due to increased domestic maintenance and low imports in July. The demand from MTO is mainly for rigid procurement, and traditional demand has weakened. Overall, the short - term supply and demand have both declined, leading to an expected volatile pattern [4] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Price and Spread - Domestic Spot Prices: Port prices have fallen, with Jiangsu ranging from 2450 - 2840 yuan/ton and Guangdong from 2420 - 2470 yuan/ton. Inland prices first declined and then rose, with Ordos North Line in the main production area ranging from 1980 - 2010 yuan/ton [4] - International Spot Prices: The report presents historical price trends of methanol in China CFR, Southeast Asia CFR, and Rotterdam FOB from 2020 - 2025 [17][18][19] - Port - Inland Price Spread: It shows the price spread trends between Taicang and Hebei, Sichuan - Chongqing, Henan, and Lunan from 2020 - 2025 [20][21][22][23] 3.2 Supply - New Capacity: In 2024 - 2025, China has multiple new methanol plants put into production, with a total domestic capacity expansion of 400 in 2024 and 840 in 2025. Overseas, the total international capacity expansion was 355 in 2024 and is expected to be 330 in 2025 [25] - Maintenance: Many domestic methanol plants are under maintenance, including those in the Northwest, North, Southwest, and Central regions [27] - Production and Capacity Utilization: The report shows historical data on China's methanol production, capacity utilization, production by process, and capacity utilization by region from 2018 - 2025 [28][30][31][34][35] - Import - related: It includes historical data on China's methanol import volume, import cost, arrival volume, and import profit from 2020 - 2025 [37][38][39][40][41] - Cost and Profit: Data on methanol production costs and profits from different production methods in various regions from 2020 - 2025 are presented [43][44][45][46][47][48][49] 3.3 Demand - Downstream Capacity Utilization: It shows the capacity utilization trends of methanol downstream industries such as MTO, dimethyl ether, formaldehyde, glacial acetic acid, MTBE, etc., from 2018 - 2025 [52][53][54][56][57] - Downstream Profit: Data on the production profits of methanol downstream industries such as MTO, formaldehyde, MTBE, etc., in different regions from 2020 - 2025 are presented [60][61][63][64][65][66] - Procurement Volume: It includes the procurement volume data of MTO production enterprises and traditional downstream manufacturers in different regions from 2020 - 2025 [68][69][70][71][73][74][75][76] - Raw Material Inventory: The inventory data of traditional downstream methanol raw materials in different regions from 2020 - 2025 are presented [78][79][80][81] 3.4 Inventory - Factory Inventory: It shows the historical data of China's methanol factory inventory and inventory in different regions from 2018 - 2025 [83][84][85][86] - Port Inventory: The historical data of China's methanol port inventory and inventory in different ports from 2018 - 2025 are presented [89][90][91]