能源化工玻璃纯碱周度报告-20250706

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Glass: The medium - term outlook is a sideways market. In the short - term, spot transactions are stable, and policy proposals and peak - season expectations drive a rebound. However, factors such as Hubei's warehouse receipt pricing and high inventory limit the upside. The long - term bullish view is supported by policy expectations, low prices, long - term losses of manufacturers, and peak - season expectations for the 09 contract. The bearish view is based on the lack of substantial improvement in the real - estate market and high inventory pressure [6][7]. - Soda Ash: The trend is sideways with a downward bias. High glass inventory and large losses limit the price increase of soda ash. Although short - term valuation is low and there are some positive expectations, the market will face greater delivery pressure. The core factors are high production and high inventory, and it is difficult to expect a long - term shortage [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Glass 3.1.1 Supply - Side Situation - Cold - repaired production lines in 2025 have a total daily melting capacity of 10,530 tons/day [11]. - Ignited production lines in 2025 have a total daily melting capacity of 11,510 tons/day [12]. - Potential new ignition production lines have a total daily melting capacity of 14,600 tons/day [14]. - Potential复产 production lines have a total daily melting capacity of 8,130 tons/day, mainly concentrated in South and Southwest China [15]. - Potential cold - repair production lines have a total daily melting capacity of 6,900 tons/day [17]. - The current in - production capacity is about 157,000 tons/day. The peak capacity in 2021 was 178,000 tons/day, and the recent low was 148,000 - 150,000 tons/day. The production reduction space in the first half of the year is limited [19][21]. 3.1.2 Price and Profit - This week, transactions were stable, with most prices unchanged and some in Shahe rising by 10 yuan/ton. Shahe's price is around 1,130 - 1,180 yuan/ton, Hubei's is around 1,000 - 1,100 yuan/ton, and East China's is around 1,220 - 1,360 yuan/ton [27][31]. - Futures rebounded, the basis was weak, and the monthly spread was stable. The monthly spread was weak due to near - month warehouse receipt factors [33][35]. - Profits: Petroleum coke profit is around - 101 yuan/ton, and natural gas and coal fuel profits are around - 199 - 82 yuan/ton. The profit of coal - fired devices is 86 yuan/ton, natural - gas - fired devices is - 188 yuan/ton, and petroleum - coke - fired devices is - 85 yuan/ton [38][41]. 3.1.3 Inventory and Downstream开工 - Recent transactions were relatively stable, and inventory in most regions decreased slightly [44]. - Regional arbitrage: The price in East China decreased, and the regional price difference shrank [45]. 3.1.4 Photovoltaic Glass - Price and profit: Prices declined, recent orders decreased, shipments were average, and inventory increased. The mainstream order price of 2.0mm coated panels is 10.5 - 11 yuan/square meter, down 2.27% month - on - month; the 3.2mm coated mainstream order price is 18 - 19 yuan/square meter, down 2.63% month - on - month [53][55]. - Capacity and inventory: As the market weakens, it may enter a production - reduction cycle again. As of early July, the actual capacity is about 94,000 tons/day, and the sample inventory days are about 34.62 days, up 6.80% month - on - month [57][58][62]. 3.2 Soda Ash 3.2.1 Supply and Maintenance - Soda ash开工 changed little, and the potential maintenance volume is currently small. The capacity utilization rate is 81.32% (last week was 82.2%). The current weekly output of heavy soda ash is 396,000 tons. With high production and high inventory, either manufacturers increase production - reduction efforts or the real - estate industry recovers to drive the demand for glass and soda ash. Currently, glass has great pressure and cannot increase the demand for soda ash [66][68]. - Inventory is about 1.81 million tons, with 805,000 tons of light soda ash and 1.005 million tons of heavy soda ash [69][70]. 3.2.2 Price and Profit - The prices in Shahe and Hubei are nominally around 1,200 - 1,300 yuan/ton, and prices changed little this week [76][80]. - Due to high production and high inventory, the near - month pressure is large. The basis is slightly strong, and the monthly spread is under pressure. The near - month pressure comes from delivery and trade pressure, and the fundamental factor is the weak glass market and high soda ash production [82][85]. - The joint - alkali profit in East China (excluding Shandong) is - 12.5 yuan/ton, and the ammonia - alkali profit in North China is - 62 yuan/ton [88]. - There are several planned and under - construction projects in the soda ash industry, such as the second - phase project of Yuanxing Energy with an expansion capacity of 2.8 million tons/year, planned to be put into production in the second half of 2025 [84].