Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-07-06 13:11Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the defense and military industry, suggesting an "Overweight" rating, indicating that the industry is expected to outperform the overall market [4][29]. Core Insights - The defense and military sector is experiencing a significant upward cycle driven by domestic demand and military modernization efforts, particularly the transition to "mechanization + informationization" and the upcoming "intelligent + unmanned" era [5][6]. - The report highlights the increasing global military trade demand due to geopolitical changes, which is expected to create a strong resonance between supply and demand in China's military trade [5]. - The valuation of the military industry is projected to rise as the sector benefits from both domestic construction cycles and the reshaping of global military trade dynamics, leading to higher market recognition and valuation [5][14]. Market Review - Last week, the Shenwan Defense and Military Index rose by 1.36%, while the CSI Military Leaders Index increased by 1.3%. In comparison, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.4%, and the CSI 300 Index increased by 1.54% [4][6]. - The report notes that the defense and military sector's performance ranked 13th among 31 Shenwan primary industry sectors [6]. - The top five performing stocks in the defense and military sector last week were: - Morningstar Aviation (24.21%) - China Ship Emergency (20.23%) - Xuanji Information (17.67%) - Rongfa Nuclear Power (17.02%) - Parker New Materials (12.24%) [6][13]. Valuation Changes - The current PE-TTM for the Shenwan military sector is 81.14, placing it in the upper range historically, with a valuation percentile of 70.36% since January 2014 and 99.24% since January 2019 [14][19]. - The report indicates a slight differentiation in valuations among sub-sectors, with aerospace and aviation equipment showing relatively high PE valuations since 2020 [14][19]. Key Valuation Targets - The report lists several key targets within the military sector, including: - High-end combat capabilities: AVIC Shenyang Aircraft, AVIC Chengdu Aircraft, Inner Mongolia First Machinery, and others. - New quality combat capabilities: Chengdu Huamei, Xindong Link, Aerospace Electronics, and others [5][21].