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宏观周报(6月30日-7月6日):“大而美”法案落地,高关税威胁再来-20250706
Yin He Zheng Quan·2025-07-06 13:18

Domestic Macro - Demand Side - As of July 4, 2023, the passenger car sales in June reached 2.032 million units, a year-on-year increase of 15.8%[2] - The average number of domestic flights in July was 14,200, a month-on-month increase of 11.46%[2] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) averaged 1,442.75 as of July 4, 2023, a month-on-month decrease of 13.9% and a year-on-year decrease of 24.6%[2] Domestic Macro - Production Side - As of July 4, 2023, the operating rate of blast furnaces was 83.44%, a slight decrease of 0.4 percentage points[3] - The operating rate for automotive semi-steel tires was recorded at 70.41%, a month-on-month decrease of 7.64 percentage points[3] - PTA production reached 1.416 million tons as of July 3, 2023, maintaining a high level compared to the past four years[3] Price Performance - As of July 4, 2023, the average wholesale price of pork increased by 0.75% week-on-week, while the futures settlement price of live pigs rose by 2.43%[2] - Brent crude oil prices fell by 0.25% while WTI crude oil prices increased by 0.90% as of July 4, 2023[3] Fiscal and Monetary Policy - This week, the issuance of ordinary government bonds reached 199.9 billion, with an issuance progress of 55.5%[3] - The central bank's liquidity support remains ample, with a net withdrawal of 1.38 trillion from reverse repos this week[3] International Macro - U.S. Economic Data - The U.S. non-farm payrolls added 147,000 jobs in June, exceeding expectations, primarily due to a significant increase in state and local government education jobs[4] - The U.S. manufacturing PMI for June was reported at 49.0, slightly better than the expected 48.8, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity[4]