钢铁周报：“反内卷”叠加唐山减排，钢铁权益低估值下迎来强修复-20250706

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a strong recovery in the steel sector driven by the "anti-involution" trend and emission reductions in Tangshan, suggesting that steel equities are undervalued [1] Summary by Sections Weekly Data - The SW Steel Index increased by 5.1% year-to-date, while the SW General Steel Index rose by 6.5% [3] - The price of rebar (HRB400 20mm) is at 3,180 CNY/ton, reflecting a weekly increase of 2.9% and a year-to-date increase of 6.7% [3] - Iron ore prices have shown a significant increase, with the Platts index at 96 USD/ton, up 20% year-to-date [3] Inventory - Total social inventory of five major steel products stands at 915 million tons, with a year-to-date increase of 20.7% [5] - Steel mill inventory is at 424 million tons, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 21.0% [5] - Port inventory of iron ore is at 13,882 million tons, with a year-to-date increase of 6.6% [5] Supply and Demand - The weekly output of five major steel products is projected to increase, indicating a potential rise in supply [10] - The average daily molten iron production is expected to remain stable, suggesting balanced demand [10] Profitability - The profitability rate of steel mills is currently at 18.6%, indicating a healthy margin for major players [14]