猪价突破15元，关注养殖端出栏节奏

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [4][69] Core Insights - The report highlights significant price increases in the pig farming sector, with the national average pig price reaching 15.37 yuan/kg as of July 4, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.71 yuan/kg [2][10] - The report indicates a decrease in slaughter volume due to high temperatures affecting pork consumption, with daily average slaughter volume dropping to 138,000 heads, a week-on-week decrease of 3.83% [2][16] - The report notes a rebound in average pig weight for slaughter, with the average weight recorded at 128.64 kg, a week-on-week increase of 0.50 kg [2][22] - The poultry sector is experiencing a decline in chicken chick prices, with the price of white feather chicken chicks dropping to 1.36 yuan/chick, a week-on-week decrease of 0.34 yuan/chick [3][35] - The report discusses the impact of ongoing avian influenza outbreaks on the poultry industry, particularly affecting the supply of quality chicks [3][39] - The seed industry is seeing increased regulatory scrutiny, which is expected to enhance market order and accelerate the commercialization of genetically modified organisms [3][48] - The report mentions fluctuations in soybean meal prices, with the spot price at 2,928 yuan/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 22 yuan/ton [3][49] - The agricultural sector overall has shown a 2.55% increase in the past week, outperforming major indices [3][54] Summary by Sections Pig Farming - Supply reduction has led to significant price increases, with the national average pig price at 15.37 yuan/kg [2][10] - Slaughter volume has decreased due to high temperatures, with daily average slaughter volume at 138,000 heads [2][16] - Average pig weight for slaughter has rebounded to 128.64 kg [2][22] - The report suggests monitoring companies such as Muyuan Foods, Dekang Agriculture, and Wens Foodstuff Group for potential investment opportunities [2][33] Poultry Sector - White feather chicken chick prices have reached a new low, with prices at 1.36 yuan/chick [3][35] - The ongoing avian influenza outbreaks are affecting the supply chain, particularly in the U.S. and New Zealand [3][39] - The report recommends focusing on companies like Xiamen Xiangyu and Shennong Group for investment [3][39] Seed Industry & Agricultural Products - Regulatory measures are being strengthened in the seed industry, which is expected to improve market conditions [3][48] - Soybean meal prices are fluctuating, with current prices at 2,928 yuan/ton [3][49] - The report suggests monitoring soybean meal ETFs for investment opportunities [3][49]