Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the alumina industry is "Oscillation" [1] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic ore supply has tightened, and the spot price of alumina has risen slightly. The alumina market is currently in a state of slight oversupply, and short - term price trends are expected to oscillate. It is recommended to approach it with an oscillatory mindset in the short term [1][15] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Alumina Industry Chain Weekly Overview - Raw Materials: Domestic ore prices remained stable last week. In Shanxi, Shandong, and Guizhou, the prices of different - grade bauxite were stable. In Shanxi, inspections continued, and in Henan, rainfall limited mining, leading to supply shortages and firm prices. In Guangxi, illegal mining inspections were strengthened. Imported bauxite long - term agreement prices were between $74 - 75 per dry ton, and shipments might decrease in the second half of the third quarter. Newly - arrived ore was 4.436 million tons, with 3.555 million tons from Guinea and 0.594 million tons from Australia. The shipping cost from Guinea to China dropped to $18.5 per ton [12] - Alumina: The spot price of alumina rose slightly last week. In the domestic market, the ALD northern comprehensive price and the domestic weighted index increased. The import port price remained flat. Market transactions were average. Overseas, 30,000 tons of alumina were traded in Western Australia. The domestic alumina production capacity increased slightly, with a construction capacity of 112.92 million tons, an operating capacity of 93.55 million tons (up 400,000 tons from last week), and an operating rate of 82.9% [3][13] - Demand: Domestically, Guizhou Huangguoshu Aluminum increased production by 20,000 tons to 100,000 tons. The domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was 44.103 million tons, an increase of 20,000 tons week - on - week. Overseas demand remained unchanged, with an electrolytic aluminum operating capacity of 29.571 million tons [13] - Inventory: As of July 3, the national alumina inventory was 3.162 million tons, an increase of 25,000 tons from last week. Electrolytic aluminum enterprises' alumina inventory increased, with different inventory trends among various entities. Alumina enterprises' inventory was at a low level, port inventory fluctuated significantly, and delivery inventory decreased [14] - Warehouse Receipts: There were 21,314 tons of registered alumina warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, a decrease of 9,005 tons from last week. The domestic futures price oscillated last week. The bauxite price in Guinea was stable in the third quarter, and the domestic alumina supply was slightly in surplus, suppressing the price. It is recommended to view alumina from an oscillatory perspective in the short term [15] 2. Summary of Key Events in the Industry Chain during the Week - On July 5, 30,000 tons of alumina were traded in East Australia at a FOB price of $363 per ton from Gladstone Port for shipping in early August [16] - On July 4, 10,000 tons of alumina were traded in Guangxi at an ex - factory price of 3,250 yuan per ton. Supply in the local market was tight due to production cuts and maintenance [16] - On July 2, 300 tons of alumina were traded in Henan at an ex - factory price of 3,150 yuan per ton, purchased by a trader for delivery to a northwest aluminum plant [16] 3. Monitoring of Key Data for the Upstream and Downstream of the Industry Chain - Raw Materials and Cost: This section includes data on domestic and imported bauxite prices, domestic bauxite port inventory, shipping volume from major bauxite - importing countries, sea - floating inventory, domestic caustic soda and thermal coal prices, and alumina production costs in different provinces [17][19][24] - Alumina Price and Supply - Demand Balance: It covers domestic and imported alumina prices, domestic electrolytic aluminum spot prices, the futures price ratio of electrolytic aluminum to alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the weekly supply - demand balance of domestic alumina [31][33][39] - Alumina Inventory and Warehouse Receipts: It involves the alumina inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants, alumina plants, domestic alumina in storage/on the platform/in transit, port inventory, total social inventory, and the quantity and holding volume of alumina warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange [41][44][49]
国内矿石供给有所收紧,氧化铝现货价格小幅上行
Dong Zheng Qi Huo·2025-07-06 13:43