Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints - After crossing the quarter - end, the funding situation returned to ease, overnight interest rates continued to decline to 1.3%, the central bank did not initiate treasury bond transactions in June, and the PMI continued to rise slightly. The bond market resumed its upward trend, with ultra - long bonds rising slightly. The trading activity of ultra - long bonds decreased slightly last week but remained quite active. The term spread of ultra - long bonds widened, and the variety spread narrowed. Considering the economic data, although the economy showed resilience in May, there are still downward pressures. After the half - year mark, the funding rate declined again, and the probability of the bond market rising is greater. However, the term spread of 30 - year treasury bonds and the variety spread of 20 - year CDB bonds are still low, with limited spread protection [1][2][3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Weekly Review Ultra - long Bond Review - After the quarter - end, the funding became looser, overnight rates dropped to 1.3%, the central bank did not trade treasury bonds in June, PMI rose slightly, the bond market went up, and ultra - long bonds had a small increase. Trading activity of ultra - long bonds decreased slightly but was still active. The term spread widened, and the variety spread narrowed [1][9] Ultra - long Bond Investment Outlook - 30 - year Treasury Bonds: As of July 4, the spread between 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds was 21BP, at a historically low level. In May, the estimated GDP growth was about 5.0% year - on - year, down 0.1% from April but still above the annual target. With CPI at - 0.1% and PPI at - 3.1% in May, deflation risks remain. Exports declined rapidly in May, and domestic housing prices turned negative month - on - month. After the half - year mark, the funding rate fell again, and the bond market is more likely to rise. However, the term spread of 30 - year treasury bonds is low, with limited protection [2][10] - 20 - year CDB Bonds: As of July 4, the spread between 20 - year CDB bonds and 20 - year treasury bonds was 3BP, at a historically extremely low level. Similar to the 30 - year treasury bonds, considering the economic situation in May and the decline in the funding rate after the half - year mark, the bond market is likely to rise. But the variety spread of 20 - year CDB bonds is low, with limited protection [3][11] Ultra - long Bond Basic Overview - The balance of outstanding ultra - long bonds exceeded 22.2 trillion. As of June 30, the total amount of ultra - long bonds with a remaining maturity of over 14 years was 222,528 billion, accounting for 14.5% of all bonds. Local government bonds and treasury bonds are the main varieties. By variety, treasury bonds accounted for 26.3%, local government bonds 67.5%, etc. By remaining maturity, the 25 - 35 - year variety accounted for the highest proportion at 40.4% [12] Primary Market Weekly Issuance - Last week (June 30 - July 4, 2025), ultra - long bond issuance decreased significantly, with a total of 359 billion yuan issued. By variety, local government bonds accounted for 344 billion, and mid - term notes 15 billion. By term, 15 - year bonds accounted for 139 billion, 20 - year for 70 billion, and 30 - year for 151 billion [17] This Week's Scheduled Issuance - This week's announced ultra - long bond issuance plan totals 768 billion. By variety, ultra - long local government bonds account for 748 billion, and mid - term notes 20 billion [22] Secondary Market Trading Volume - Last week, ultra - long bond trading was quite active, with a turnover of 11,010 billion, accounting for 13.1% of all bonds. Trading activity decreased slightly compared to the previous week. Ultra - long treasury bond turnover decreased by 2,214 billion, and its proportion decreased by 1.5%; ultra - long local bond turnover decreased by 688 billion, and its proportion decreased by 14.1%; ultra - long policy - bank bond turnover increased by 4 billion, and its proportion increased by 0.1%; ultra - long government - agency bond turnover increased by 78 billion, and its proportion increased by 37.2% [24] Yield - After the quarter - end, the funding situation eased, overnight rates dropped to 1.3%, the central bank did not trade treasury bonds in June, PMI rose slightly, the bond market went up, and ultra - long bonds had a small increase. Yields of 15 - year, 20 - year, 30 - year, and 50 - year treasury bonds changed by 0BP, 0BP, 0BP, and - 3BP respectively to 1.79%, 1.89%, 1.85%, and 1.94%. Yields of representative individual bonds also changed, such as the 30 - year treasury bond active bond 24 special treasury bond 06 yield changing by - 2BP to 1.89% [38][39] Spread Analysis - Term Spread: Last week, the term spread of ultra - long bonds widened but remained at a low absolute level. The spread between 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds was 21BP, up 1BP from the previous week, at the 5% percentile since 2010 [45] - Variety Spread: Last week, the variety spread of ultra - long bonds narrowed and was at a low absolute level. The spread between 20 - year CDB bonds and treasury bonds was 3BP, and between 20 - year railway bonds and treasury bonds was 7BP, down 1BP and 2BP respectively from the previous week, at the 6% percentile since 2010 [46] 30 - year Treasury Bond Futures - Last week, the 30 - year treasury bond futures main contract TL2509 closed at 121.20 yuan, an increase of 0.26%. The total trading volume was 408,900 lots (- 8,046 lots), and the open interest was 151,000 lots (10,690 lots). The trading volume decreased slightly, and the open interest increased slightly compared to the previous week [51]
超长债周报：资金利率进一步走低，50年国债快速上涨-20250706
Guoxin Securities·2025-07-06 13:39