债市微观结构跟踪：长债成交占比继续上升

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - "Guojin Securities Fixed Income - Bond Market Micro - trading Thermometer" rose slightly by 1 percentage point to 53% compared with the previous period. Most indicator quantiles increased significantly, while the relative turnover quantile dropped significantly, and the fund duration and stock - bond ratio quantiles declined slightly [14]. - The proportion of indicators in the over - heated range among the 20 micro - indicators increased to 40%, those in the neutral range decreased to 15%, and those in the cold range increased to 45%. The TL/T long - short ratio and long - term Treasury bond trading volume proportion moved from the neutral to the over - heated range, while the 30/10Y Treasury bond turnover and 1/10Y Treasury bond turnover moved from the over - heated and neutral ranges to the cold range respectively [3][19]. - By category, the average quantile of trading heat decreased by 6 percentage points, the average quantile of institutional behavior increased by 3 percentage points, the average quantile of spreads increased by 4 percentage points, and the average quantile of price ratios increased by 7 percentage points [4][19]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overall Indicator Changes - The micro - trading thermometer reading continued to rise by 1 percentage point to 53% [11][14][19]. - The proportion of indicators in the over - heated range rose to 40% [11][19][21]. 3.2 Trading Heat Indicators - The proportion of indicators in the over - heated range among trading heat indicators increased to 67%, those in the neutral range decreased to 0%, and those in the cold range increased to 33% [5][22]. - The 30/10Y Treasury bond turnover quantile dropped by 59 percentage points to 37% and moved from the over - heated to the cold range; the 1/10Y Treasury bond turnover dropped by 49 percentage points and moved from the neutral to the cold range. The TL/T long - short ratio and long - term Treasury bond trading volume proportion quantiles rose by 35 and 27 percentage points respectively and moved from the neutral to the over - heated range [5][22][25]. 3.3 Institutional Behavior Indicators - The proportion of indicators in the over - heated, neutral, and cold ranges remained at 50%, 13%, and 38% respectively. The quantile of the fund duration dropped slightly by 6 percentage points, while most other indicator quantiles rose [6][23]. - The bond fund profit - taking pressure and listed company wealth management purchase volume quantiles rose by 9 and 15 percentage points respectively, driving the average quantile of institutional behavior up by 3 percentage points [4][19]. 3.4 Spread Indicators - The policy spread narrowed by 1bp to - 2bp, and its quantile rose by 5 percentage points to 63%, remaining in the neutral range. The credit spread and agricultural development - state - owned development spread narrowed by 3bp and 2bp respectively, while the IRS - SHIBOR 3M spread widened slightly by 1bp. The average spread narrowed by 1bp to 17bp, and its quantile rose by 5 percentage points to 45%, also in the neutral range [7][29][32]. - The market spread and policy spread quantiles rose by 4 and 5 percentage points respectively, driving the average spread quantile up by 4 percentage points [4][19]. 3.5 Price Ratio Indicators - The proportion of price ratio indicators in the cold range remained at 100%. Except for a 4 - percentage - point drop in the stock - bond ratio quantile, the commodity price ratio and real estate price ratio quantiles rose by 27 and 4 percentage points respectively, and the consumer goods price ratio quantile remained unchanged [8][32]. - The average quantile of price ratios increased by 7 percentage points [4][19].