如何看待“反内卷”对交运的影响？

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the transportation industry [10] Core Insights - The report discusses the impact of the "anti-involution" policy on the transportation sector, emphasizing a shift from aggressive market share competition to a focus on profitability and quality [6][18] - It highlights the gradual recovery in passenger transport during the summer season, with domestic passenger volume showing a 5% year-on-year increase [7] - The report notes the ongoing challenges in the shipping sector, particularly with oil transport rates declining due to seasonal demand fluctuations [8] Summary by Sections Anti-Involution Impact on Transportation - The central government emphasizes the need to regulate low-price competition and improve product quality in the transportation sector [6][18] - The report identifies investment opportunities in aviation, logistics, and port operations, suggesting a transition from price wars to value-based competition [6][18] Passenger Transport - The summer travel season has started slowly, with domestic passenger volume increasing by 5% year-on-year, while international passenger volume has risen by 16% [7] - Domestic ticket prices have faced pressure, with a 9.7% year-on-year decline in oil-inclusive ticket prices [7] - The report recommends focusing on A-share private airlines and the three major Hong Kong airlines as potential investment targets [7] Shipping Sector - Oil transport rates have decreased, with the average VLCC-TCE rate dropping by 18.2% to $24,000 per day [8] - The report notes a seasonal slowdown in demand for oil transport, while container shipping rates on the US route have also declined [8] - It highlights the potential for recovery in oil transport rates as OPEC+ continues to increase production [8] Logistics - The report indicates a resilient performance in air freight rates, with a 0.5% week-on-week increase in cargo prices at Pudong Airport [8] - The express delivery sector has shown robust growth, with a 16% year-on-year increase in the volume of postal express deliveries [8] - It emphasizes the need for companies to focus on quality and efficiency to combat the negative effects of price wars [8][62] Port Operations - The report discusses the trend of regional port integration, moving from "one port, one enterprise" to "regional collaboration" to reduce over-competition [8][66] - It notes that the profitability of the port industry has been under pressure due to overcapacity and low utilization rates [8][63]