金信期货日刊-20250707

Group 1: Report Core View - Glass futures experienced a pullback after a rally, presenting a good opportunity to go long [3] - The expectation of production cuts is the key driver for the price increase of glass futures. Domestic leading photovoltaic glass enterprises plan to collectively cut production by 30% starting from July, and the supply in July is expected to drop to around 45GW. Previously, the glass industry had a serious oversupply issue, with prices dropping by over 70% and the industry in a loss - making state. Production cuts will alleviate the imbalance between supply and demand and accelerate capacity clearance, which is beneficial for price recovery. Additionally, Sanxia New Material announced a one - year cold repair of its float glass production line, and these production cut actions on the supply side support the price [4] - Policy factors also contribute to the rise in glass futures prices. The Central Financial and Economic Commission proposed to regulate the low - price and disorderly competition of enterprises, which will increase costs as enterprises improve product quality and reduce supply as backward production capacity exits [4] - From the market sentiment and technical aspects, glass futures may have been oversold previously and have a technical rebound demand. The market's expectation of production cut news and policies has strengthened the bullish sentiment, and capital inflows have pushed up the price. Moreover, the firm price of soda ash has caused some glass enterprises to incur losses, providing strong support for the glass price near the cost line [5] Group 2: Technical Analysis of Different Futures Stock Index Futures - The implementation of the new program trading regulations is imminent. It is expected that the market will continue to fluctuate upwards next Monday [8] Gold - The Fed's decision not to cut interest rates in the meeting has reduced the expectation of interest rate cuts this year, leading to an adjustment in the gold price. However, the overall trend remains bullish, and it is only a matter of time before it reaches a new high, although the pace is slow. Currently, it has adjusted to an important support level and is likely to resume its upward trend [12][13] Iron Ore - The supply of iron ore has increased month - on - month, pig iron production has weakened seasonally, and port inventories have started to accumulate again. The weak reality has increased the over - valuation risk of iron ore. Attention should be paid to steel mill profits. Technically, most of the prices have risen and then fallen today, and a wide - range oscillation approach should be adopted [16][17] Glass - The supply side of glass has not yet experienced a major loss - induced cold repair situation, factory inventories are still at a high level, and the downstream deep - processing orders have weak replenishment motivation, so the demand has not continued to increase significantly. It still depends on the effect of real estate stimulus or the introduction of major policies. Recently, the significant production cut of photovoltaic glass has affected market sentiment. Technically, the price has maintained a range - bound consolidation today, and the short - term sentiment has a greater impact. An oscillating and bullish approach should be adopted [20][21] Soybean Oil - Due to the long - term expectation of the US biodiesel policy and the uncertain situation in the Middle East, the short - term trend of soybean oil may be oscillating or bullish. However, the current supply - demand situation is not tight, and it is in a period of seasonal production and inventory increase in the medium term. When the price reaches the previous high pressure area of 8050 - 8000, a light - position short - term short - selling strategy can be considered [23]