渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.07.07）-20250707

Macro and Strategy Research - The US core PCE in May slightly exceeded expectations, primarily driven by core services, while household income saw its largest decline in nearly a year due to reduced government transfers, impacting consumer spending negatively [2][3] - The manufacturing PMI in June remains in contraction territory, indicating cautious production outlooks among businesses due to insufficient orders and accelerating inflation expectations [2] - In Europe, inflation data showed a slight rebound driven by services, and the unemployment rate has slightly increased, which may influence ECB decisions amid ongoing US-EU tariff negotiations [3] Fixed Income Research - The June manufacturing PMI showed improvements in both domestic and external demand, but July's manufacturing sentiment may be constrained by weather factors [5] - After the quarter transition, the funding environment has turned more relaxed, with DR007 dropping below 1.50%, marking a new low for the year [5] - The issuance of bonds in the primary market slowed down, with a total issuance of 56 bonds amounting to 335 billion yuan, reflecting a significant drop in new local special bond issuance in early July [5] Industry Research - In May, the healthcare CPI rose by 0.3% year-on-year, while the pharmaceutical manufacturing PPI fell by 2.0% year-on-year, indicating challenges in the pharmaceutical sector [8] - The pharmaceutical sector saw a slight increase in the stock market, with the SW pharmaceutical industry PE ratio at 27.81 times, representing a 143% premium over the CSI 300 [9] - Recent policies have been introduced to support the pharmaceutical industry, including measures to optimize clinical trial reviews and approvals for innovative drugs, which are expected to enhance the sector's growth [10][11] - The recent approval of the first GCG/GLP-1 dual receptor agonist for weight control by domestic companies highlights the increasing innovation capabilities within China's pharmaceutical sector [10][11]