宝城期货国债期货早报-20250707

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall view of treasury bond futures is to oscillate. In the short - term, it will continue to oscillate and consolidate. Although the possibility of an immediate interest rate cut is low, the long - term upward logic is relatively solid, and the downward space is limited [1][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2509 variety, the short - term view is oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, the intraday view is weakly oscillating, and the overall view is oscillation. The core logic is that the monetary policy environment is relatively loose, but the possibility of a short - term interest rate cut is not high [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Quotation Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, TS, the intraday view is weakly oscillating, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the reference view is oscillation. The core logic is that last Friday, treasury bond futures oscillated and sorted out, closing slightly higher throughout the day. At the beginning of the month, liquidity is relatively loose, and the future monetary policy is expected to be positive, so treasury bond futures perform strongly. In the future macro - environment, the endogenous growth momentum of domestic demand is insufficient, and external demand is vulnerable to tariff factors. A relatively loose monetary environment is needed in the second half of the year to support demand and stabilize expectations. The long - term upward logic of treasury bond futures is relatively solid. Although the possibility of an immediate interest rate cut is low, the anchoring effect of policy interest rates is strong, and the upward space of market interest rates is limited, so the downward space of treasury bond futures is also limited [5].