宝城期货股指期货早报-20250707

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - For the IH2509 variety, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "upward", and the intraday view is "oscillation with a stronger bias", with the overall view being "oscillation with a stronger bias" due to strong support from positive policy expectations [1]. - For IF, IH, IC, and IM varieties, the intraday view is "oscillation with a stronger bias", the medium - term view is "upward", and the reference view is "oscillation with a stronger bias". In the short term, the stock index will mainly oscillate within a range, and continuous attention should be paid to the realization of positive policy expectations [4]. Group 3: Summary by Related Content Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the IH2509 variety, short - term is defined as within a week, medium - term is from two weeks to one month. The short - term is "oscillation", medium - term is "upward", intraday is "oscillation with a stronger bias", and the overall view is "oscillation with a stronger bias". The core logic is that positive policy expectations provide strong support [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - Last Friday, each stock index oscillated and sorted, showing a trend of rising first and then falling. The total market turnover of the stock market was 1454.5 billion yuan, an increase of 121 billion yuan compared with the previous day. Due to the considerable increase in each stock index since late June, the upward momentum of the stock index has slowed down. From a macro and policy perspective, the endogenous growth momentum of domestic demand is insufficient, and external demand is vulnerable to the impact of tariff factors. More positive policies to stabilize economic demand and market expectations are needed in the second half of the year, which is the main logic for this round of stock index rebound. Attention should be paid to the policy guidance of the Politburo meeting in July. In the short term, the liquidity at the beginning of the month is relatively loose, and the fading of overseas geopolitical factors and the easing of tariff factors have also boosted the risk appetite of the stock market [4].